Netherlands labors but holds off Serbia 2-1 in Nations League

A Teun Koopmeiners free kick broke the deadlock in the 30th minute, but Serbia needed just four minutes to respond, turning what looked like a formality into a genuine contest. In the end, the Netherlands came out on top 2-1 at the Philips Stadion in a UEFA Nations League clash in which Dutch control of the game was obvious, even if it was far less comfortable than the form book suggested.

Koopmeiners opened the scoring with a low left-footed strike into the corner by the left post, a goal that needed a VAR review before it was confirmed. The home side's joy was short lived: in the 34th minute, Mihajlo Cvetkovic headed in an equalizer from close range into the top right corner, finishing off a cross from Aleksa Terzic. The 1-1 scoreline held until halftime, capping a first half in which the Netherlands had created plenty more danger without managing to turn that pressure into a comfortable lead.

In the second half, the game stayed tight until the 71st minute, when Joshua Zirkzee, who had come on for Mexx Meerdink at the start of the half, finished with his right foot from close range after an assist from Tijjani Reijnders. That 2-1 scoreline held firm, though Serbia kept pushing until the final whistle with chances from Luka Jovic and Nemanja Gudelj, and with Filip Kostic whipping in crosses from the left after coming on as a substitute. Deep into stoppage time, the Netherlands suffered another scare: Micky van de Ven had to be withdrawn through injury in the 89th minute, with no substitutions left to make, though the result was not affected.

Dominance confirmed by the numbers

The stats make clear the gap in ball control. The Netherlands dictated the tempo from start to finish, with overwhelming possession and far more chances created, though Serbia also had clear opportunities of its own.

Based on our post-match xG estimate calculated from the shots taken in the match, the Netherlands generated 2.98 expected goals to Serbia's 1.73, a gap that backs up the Dutch dominance while also confirming that the Serbians carried real attacking threat, something the temporary 1-1 in the first half had already hinted at.

Going in, our projection gave the Netherlands an 80% chance of winning, against a 14% chance of a draw and just 6% for a Serbian victory, with expected goals of 2.82 for the home side and 0.74 for the visitors. The final result lined up with that forecast in terms of the winner, though Serbia scored more than that projection anticipated and forced the Netherlands to settle it with a late goal, far from the walkover those numbers initially suggested.

What it means in the group table

In Group A2, the Netherlands came into this match as the leader with 8 points from 4 matches played (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), while Serbia remained without a point, having lost all 4 of its matches with a goal difference of minus 5. The gap between the two sides was already 8 points before this match, and Saturday's win does nothing but confirm each team's standing at the top and bottom of the group respectively.

For the Netherlands, the outcome is a positive one despite the scare of being briefly pulled level, as the team claimed all three points thanks to goals from Koopmeiners and Zirkzee, though Van de Ven's injury in stoppage time leaves a concern looking ahead. For Serbia, Cvetkovic's goal was enough to make a game of it, but it wasn't enough to avoid another defeat in the competition.