New England Revolution shocks FC Cincinnati, wins 3-2 in MLS

TQL Stadium saw just about everything except what the pregame numbers suggested. New England Revolution walked away with a 3-2 win over FC Cincinnati, overturning a deficit in barely half an hour of play and then weathering a late home siege in MLS action.

The match opened exactly as expected, with Cincinnati controlling the ball and hunting an early goal. It arrived in the 12th minute, when Tom Barlow finished with his left foot from inside the box, just inside the left post, off an assist from Tyrell Malacia. It looked like the first step toward a comfortable afternoon for the hosts, but the Revolution answered almost immediately.

In the 20th minute, Dor Turgeman leveled things with a right-footed strike into the top corner, set up by Peyton Miller. Then, before halftime, in the 42nd minute, Joshua Wynder delivered the first real blow: a point-blank header off a Carles Gil corner-kick delivery, making it 1-2 at the break.

The second half began and the Revolution kept their foot on the gas. Just three minutes in, in the 50th minute, Turgeman notched his second goal of the afternoon with a close-range left-footed finish after a through ball from Miller. The goal was confirmed following a VAR review, making it 1-3.

Cincinnati refused to fold. Kevin Denkey, who had rattled the post with a shot minutes earlier, struck in the 66th minute to pull one back with a close-range right-footed finish, again assisted by Malacia. The hosts pushed for an equalizer the rest of the way, even hitting the crossbar through Denkey in stoppage time, but the Revolution's goal, guarded by Matt Turner, held firm until the final whistle.

What the numbers say

Cincinnati was clearly the superior side in terms of overall play, dominating possession and generating more than double the shots and more than double the corners of their opponent. The problem was New England's clinical finishing, which turned far fewer chances into a more efficient outcome.

That edge also shows up in the xG figures calculated from the match's shots: Cincinnati produced 2.33 expected goals compared to 1.29 for the Revolution. This is our own estimate calculated after the final whistle, and it confirms that the hosts created more danger than they ultimately converted, while the Revolution was lethal with the little they had.

The result also runs counter to our pre-match projections. Beforehand, we gave Cincinnati a 48% chance of winning, the Revolution 30% and a draw 22%, with expected goals of 2.24 for the hosts and 1.76 for the visitors. The final score ended up being almost the inverse of that forecast: the team given the lower odds won, and did so by scoring three goals.

What the result means in the standings

In the MLS Eastern Conference, the Revolution climb to 49 points and hold onto third place, while Cincinnati sit on 36 points in ninth, a 13-point gap between the two sides in the table. The win keeps New England firmly in the hunt at the top of the table, while Cincinnati let points slip away despite being the team that created the most over the 90 minutes.