Nice Hosts Favored Rennes at Allianz Riviera with Top Table Spots on the Line

Allianz Riviera plays host to a clash with real top-table implications: Nice, tenth with 11 points, welcomes Rennes, second with 16, in the latest round of Ligue 1. Only five points separate the two sides in the standings, but the goal difference tells a different story: Nice sits at minus 2 while Rennes has built up a plus 4.

Olivier Pantaloni's side arrives in uneven form: in the league they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in 8 matches, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. Over their last five games, though, Nice has picked up the pace with three wins and two losses, closing out their most recent match with a victory. At home in this same Ligue 1 campaign, across a sample of 4 matches, the team is averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 25% of those matches, and tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minutes. Elye Wahi stands out in that sample with 3 goals, followed by Jonathan Clauss and Sofiane Diop with one each.

On the other side is a Rennes team fighting near the top: 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the league, with 18 goals scored and 14 allowed. Over their last five matches they've put together three wins, a draw and a loss, also closing with a win most recently. On the road, in a small sample of just 3 matches in this same league, Rennes has scored 1.653 goals per game but conceded 2.987, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. Estéban Lepaul is the standout in that sample with 7 goals, with Boulaye Dia and Sebastian Szymanski chipping in 3 each.

An Even Series Full of Goals

The head to head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced: of 8 matches, Nice has won 4 and Rennes has won 4, with no draws. That said, Rennes has come out ahead on total goals in those meetings (14 to 10), a sign that matchups between these two tend to produce plenty of scoring.

Probable Lineups

For Nice, with a high reliability projected lineup based on recent matches, expect a starting eleven with Yéhvann Diouf in goal; Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Mohamed Abdelmonem and Xavier Mandza across the back line; Axel Witsel, Jonathan Clauss, Niels Nkounkou and Djibril Coulibaly in midfield; and Elye Wahi, Gauthier Hein and Mohammed Amoura up top.

Rennes, with a lower reliability projection, could field Brice Samba between the posts; Charlie Cresswell, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Aboubakar Nagida, Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal and Anthony Rouault in defense; Valentin Rongier, Mahdi Camara, Adrien Thomasson and Sebastian Szymanski in midfield; and Mousa Al Tamari leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a slight edge to the visitors, though nothing here suggests the match is decided before kickoff:

The 44% in favor of Rennes makes them the favorite, but Nice's 30% and the draw's 26% leave the outcome fairly open, with no side holding an overwhelming edge. This is EnPelotas' own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. Along the same lines, our expected goals numbers project 1.38 for Nice and 1.70 for Rennes, a combined 3.08 that lines up with a 75% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams find the net.

With those numbers in hand, Allianz Riviera looks set for a match with chances at both ends. Nice needs to keep its recent upswing going against a rival fighting for the top of the table, while Rennes will look to make its scoring touch count to avoid losing ground in the race up high.