Oldham host Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup carrying poor form and a lopsided head-to-head record

Boundary Park hosts a Yorkshire-Lancashire clash that the FA Cup is putting back on the map: Oldham Athletic against Sheffield Wednesday. It is no ordinary fixture for the home side, which arrives badly in need of some good news after a rough stretch, while the Owls look to find their footing with inconsistency as a constant travel companion.

Micky Mellon's Oldham Athletic are going through a difficult patch: in their last five matches they have picked up four losses and just one win. The recent run paints the picture of a team in need of a confidence boost, and the Cup, with its knockout format, could be exactly the opportunity to snap the losing streak.

Standing in their way will be a Sheffield Wednesday side under Dave Challinor that is not at its best either, though with somewhat more encouraging signs: over their last five outings they posted two wins and three losses. Nothing resembling solid consistency, but better signals than those of their upcoming opponent.

On the numbers for both sides in this edition of the FA Cup, caution is warranted: the available trend data comes from very small samples, two matches for Oldham and just one for Sheffield Wednesday, playing at home and away, with 0% clean sheets in both cases and the most frequent scoring window falling between minutes 0 and 15. These are figures to take with a grain of salt given the small sample size, and they in no way reflect each club's overall performance in the competition.

A head-to-head record that offers the home side little comfort

The history between these two clubs does nothing to lift Oldham's hopes either: in the four previous meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday won three times with one draw, and no wins at all for the home side. The combined scoreline from those matches is lopsided: 8 goals for the Owls against just 2 for Oldham. It is history, not the present, but it carries weight when reviewing the record.

Possible lineups

For Oldham Athletic, the likely starting lineup, rated medium reliability based on recent lineups, would feature Mathew Hudson in goal; a back line of Jamie Robson, Manny Monthe, Will Sutton and Dynel Simeu; a midfield of Tom Pett, Ryan Woods, Josh Hawkes, Kane Drummond and Kane Taylor; and Mike Fondop leading the line.

For Sheffield Wednesday, with a low reliability rating on the estimate, the probable eleven would have Pierce Charles in goal; Liam Palmer, Max Lowe and Gabriel Otegbayo in defense; Jaden Heskey, Sean Fusire, Tayo Adaramola, Jarvis Thornton and Nathaniel Chalobah in midfield; and Jerry Yates and Jamal Lowe up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model, based on this season's trends, gives Oldham Athletic a clear but not overwhelming edge to take the match as the home side.

The breakdown points to Oldham as the favorite, but far from a formality: with a 29% chance of a draw and a Sheffield Wednesday side that still holds close to a one in five shot at victory, there is plenty of room for an upset. Add to that the expected goals figures from our model, with an estimated 1.53 for Oldham and 0.85 for Sheffield Wednesday, for a projected total of 2.37 goals in the match. These are our own estimates, not a bookmaker's odds.

With recent history weighing on both sides and the Cup on the line, Boundary Park has the ingredients for a tight contest no matter what the percentages suggest. The FA Cup rarely plays favorites, and that is the beauty of it as Oldham try to flip the script on a head-to-head record that has so far gone against them.