Orlando City and Columbus Crew look to snap rough patches in a matchup with goals guaranteed

Orlando City hosts Columbus Crew at Inter.co Stadium in a matchup that looks like a lower mid-table affair on paper, but one that promises goals from both sides on the field. They sit seventh and twelfth in the MLS Eastern Conference, separated by just 5 points, and both arrive needing to snap a slump that has dragged on for weeks.

The hosts have 34 points from 27 games played, with 10 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses, plus a negative goal difference (48 scored to 64 allowed). Over their last five matches, Orlando won the first two before dropping three straight, recent form that contrasts with how the season started and calls for a response at home. Columbus, for its part, has 29 points with 8 wins, 5 draws and 14 losses (39 scored, 43 allowed), but arrives in better form: after two losses, the Crew strung together three wins in their last five matches, the exact opposite trend to their rival.

Looking at 2026 season trends at home, Orlando averages 1.765 goals scored and 1.308 allowed per game across that 13-match sample, with 23% of matches ending in a clean sheet and its busiest scoring window between the 16th and 30th minutes. Martín Ojeda leads the way there with 13 goals, followed by Antoine Griezmann with 8 and Tyrese Spicer with 6. Columbus, in its own 13-game sample on the road, scores 1.537 goals per game but allows 2.077, with just 8% clean sheets and its best stretch between the 46th and 60th minutes; its top scorer in that sample is Wessam Abou Ali, with 5 goals.

The head-to-head history carries some weight: in 8 meetings, Columbus has won 4, Orlando 2, with 2 draws, and the Crew has scored 16 goals to the hosts' 13 in those matchups. A track record suggesting this fixture rarely ends with a clean sheet.

Projected lineups

Orlando City could start with Maxime Crépeau in goal and a back line of Robin Jansson, Bernardo Rhein, David Brekalo and Zakaria Taifi, while the midfield would feature Iván Angulo, Joran Gerbet, Martín Ojeda and Eduard Atuesta, with Griezmann and Justin Ellis up top. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, not a confirmed XI.

For Columbus, the likely base includes Patrick Schulte in goal, a back line with Sean Zawadzki, Malte Amundsen, Steven Moreira and Brooks Lennon, a midfield of Taha Habroune, Mohamed Farsi and André Gomes, and an attacking trio of Santiago Rodríguez, Josef Martínez and Brais Méndez. This, too, is a projection, with medium reliability based on recent matches.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model sees this one as close, with a slight edge for the home side:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: Orlando's 42% edge from playing at home is cut down by the 34% given to Columbus, with the draw still in play at 24%. The expected goals estimate backs that reading: 1.9 for Orlando and 1.7 for Columbus, a combined 3.59 that lines up with a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score. It's worth noting that all of this is our own estimate drawn from season trends, not a betting line or a closed forecast.

With that backdrop, Inter.co Stadium is set for a back and forth affair, one where both teams' need for points may outweigh anything written on paper.