Orlando City hosts a free-falling D.C. United with both sides desperate for points

Three straight losses and a last-gasp draw: that's the form Orlando City SC brings into this matchup against D.C. United, an MLS clash built more around necessity than quality. Neither team is fighting for a spot near the top of the Eastern Conference, but both need points to stop losing ground.

The home side sits seventh with 38 points from 29 games (11 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses), with a negative goal difference of -15 that reflects just how uneven its season has been: 54 goals scored and 69 allowed. Over its last five matches, Orlando has managed just one win, added a draw and suffered three defeats, a stretch that explains why the club badly needs a result to steady itself in the standings.

D.C. United isn't in good form either: the club sits 12th with 33 points from 28 games played (7 wins, 12 draws and 9 losses), and its goal difference is also negative, at -11. Over its last five matches it has picked up two draws, two losses and just one win, the most recent of which came right before this trip to Florida. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 5 points, making clear there's no obvious favorite on paper based on the table alone.

What the history says

The two clubs have met eight times, with a slight edge for Orlando: three home wins, three for D.C. United and two draws. In terms of goals, the home side also holds a narrow advantage, 18 to the visitors' 13, though the sample is tight enough that it's hard to draw firm conclusions about who has the upper hand in this series.

Possible lineups

Based on the most frequently used formations in recent matches, Orlando City SC could take the field with Maxime Crepeau in goal, a back line of Ivan Angulo, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson and Iago Teodoro, a midfield of Eduard Atuesta, Joran Gerbet, Luis Otavio and Marco Pasalic, and Martin Ojeda paired with Antoine Griezmann up top. This is an estimated lineup, with low reliability according to our data.

On the visiting side, D.C. United could line up with Sean Johnson in net, a back four of Kye Rowles, Keisuke Kurokawa, Lucas Bartlett and Silvan Hefti, a midfield of Andre Dozzell, Kimito Nono, Brandon Servania and Peglow, and Tai Baribo alongside Jackson Hopkins up front. This projected lineup carries medium reliability, based on how often that group has started in recent matches.

What the numbers show

In its home performance in the 2026 MLS season (a sample of 14 matches), Orlando City SC averages 1.864 goals scored and 1.367 allowed per game, with 21% of its matches ending in a clean sheet, and tends to do most of its damage between the 16th and 30th minutes. Martin Ojeda, with 14 goals in that sample, and Antoine Griezmann, with 10, stand out as the club's main attacking threats.

D.C. United, in its away performance this same season (13 matches), averages 1.228 goals scored and 1.615 allowed, with clean sheets in 23% of games, and tends to score more in the closing stretch, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Tai Baribo leads that sample with 15 goals, followed by Louis Munteanu with 6.

Our model gives Orlando City SC a 59% chance of winning, against 20% for D.C. United and 21% for a draw. It's a clear edge for the home side, though not an overwhelming one, and it's backed by an estimated xG of 2.40 versus 1.39 for the visitors, with a projected total of 3.79 goals. This is our own estimate, based on the season's trends, and should not be taken as a firm prediction or betting line. The broader trends also point to an open game: a 55% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.

With both teams needing points and a fairly even history between them, the match at Inter&Co Stadium figures to be more competitive than the gap in the probabilities might suggest.