Orlando City SC Routs Toronto FC 3-0 as Griezmann and Sarajian Shine

Toronto FC put the noose around its own neck with an own goal and never found a way out of it. Orlando City SC won 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium in a match that broke open right before halftime and was put away for good with a goal late in the second half. The result lines up pretty closely with what we projected in our preview, when we gave Orlando a 50% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 26% for a Toronto victory.

The first half was tight, with more back and forth than the scoreline suggests. In the 31st minute, a ball ended up in the net off an own goal by Walker Zimmerman that put Orlando ahead, but the joy lasted only a minute: VAR reviewed the play and disallowed it, keeping the score at 0-0. Toronto breathed a sigh of relief, but not for long. As the first half wound down, deep into stoppage time, Antoine Griezmann popped up in the 44th minute to tap in a cross from Zakaria Taifi from close range, making it 1-0 at the break.

The second half opened with another scare for Orlando: in the 49th minute, VAR reviewed a possible penalty in the home side's favor and ultimately waved it off. The match stayed open, with Toronto searching for the equalizer through Josh Sargent and Derrick Etienne, who tried their luck without success. But Orlando weathered the pressure, and with nine minutes left, Harvey Sarajian finished with his right foot from the center of the box, just inside the left post, off an assist from Daryl Dike, making it 2-0 and effectively settling the match.

The numbers behind the dominance

Orlando controlled the ball more and created more clear-cut chances, though Toronto matched it in total shots without the same accuracy.

The interesting part is that the xG generated in the match, an in-house estimate calculated from shot locations, came out almost dead even: 2.313 for Orlando and 2.312 for Toronto. In other words, both sides created a similar volume of danger, but efficiency made the difference: Orlando converted its chances while Toronto ran into goalkeeper saves and a lack of finishing, on top of the crossbar that denied Sargent a consolation goal in stoppage time.

In our preview, we had projected expected goals of 2.04 for Orlando and 1.46 for Toronto, for a combined total of 3.51. The final result, a 3-0 scoreline made up of the disallowed own goal plus strikes from Griezmann and Sarajian, ended up matching that read fairly well: Orlando as the favorite in a match with goals.

What the result means

In the Eastern Conference standings, the win keeps Orlando City SC in sixth place with 34 points from 25 games played, while Toronto FC sits in 12th with 29 points from the same number of matches. The gap between the two in the table is 5 points. For Toronto, which came into the match generating chances but unable to convert them, this game stands as yet another example that the problem wasn't a lack of opportunities but the finishing in the final third.