Orlando City looks to keep rolling against an unbeaten but unspectacular Toronto FC

Orlando City comes in with three wins in its last five matches and plenty of motivation to push its way into the thick of the race at the top of the East. Standing in the way will be Toronto FC, a team that hasn't lost in five games but still hasn't quite found its stride. The match kicks off at Inter&Co Stadium in MLS action, with plenty on the line for both sides.

Orlando sits sixth in the East with 31 points, the product of 9 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in 24 matches, with 41 goals scored and 56 allowed. That negative goal difference of 15 stands out for a team currently inside the top six. Toronto, in 10th place with 29 points, has a different profile: just 6 wins but 11 draws and 7 losses, with 38 goals scored and 43 allowed. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 2 points, something the table position alone doesn't fully capture.

Looking at recent form, Orlando's last five games went loss, win, draw, win, win. Toronto, meanwhile, strung together a draw, a win, two more draws and another win: no losses in that stretch, though nothing especially dominant either.

It's also worth looking at the season trends, though these come from a separate sample and not the current tournament. Playing at home in the 2026 MLS season, Orlando averages 1.66 goals scored and 1.42 allowed per game across 12 matches, with clean sheets in just 17% of them, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes. Martín Ojeda is the club's top scorer in that sample with 11 goals, followed by Antoine Griezmann with 7. Toronto, playing on the road that same season over 10 matches, averages 0.91 goals scored and 1.49 allowed, with clean sheets in 30% of games and its best scoring window between the 31st and 45th minutes; Josh Sargent and Dániel Sallói lead the way there, each with 7 goals.

The head-to-head record clearly favors Orlando: of 8 matches played, it has won 6 and lost 2, with no draws, and holds a 20-9 goal difference in its favor.

Probable lineups

On the home side, the probable XI (medium confidence) would keep Maxime Crepeau in goal, with Robin Jansson and David Brekalo in defense, Ivan Angulo and Griffin Dorsey in midfield, and Antoine Griezmann leading the attack alongside Justin Ellis. For Toronto, the expected lineup has Luka Gavran in goal, Benjamin Kuscevic and Richie Laryea in defense, Djordje Mihailovic running the midfield, and the Josh Sargent - Daniel Sallói pairing up top.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Orlando the edge, though it doesn't rule out a Toronto win or a draw. The figures point to a match with room for any outcome, home favoritism aside.

This is our own estimate derived from season trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. On top of that, our model puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 59% and the chance of both teams scoring at 64%.

With Orlando needing to keep piling up points to climb the East and Toronto looking to break its habit of settling for draws, this match promises plenty of action on the scoreboard. The numbers projected by our model, with an estimated 3.51 combined goals between the two sides, point in exactly that direction.