Osasuna Beats Racing Santander Behind Budimir Penalty and Late Osambela Strike

VAR wiped out an Osasuna goal just two minutes in at El Sadar, but it didn't take long for the real opener to arrive: in the 8th minute, Ante Budimir buried a penalty with his left foot, low and inside the post, to make it 1-0. The score stayed put until the closing stretch, when Asier Osambela wrapped things up in the 87th minute off a counterattack, and the final 2-0 turned out to be a pretty fair reflection of how the match actually played out.

The opening stretch had a bit of everything. Even before that penalty, Osasuna had already seen a goal chalked off: Jonathan Dubasin poked one into the net in the second minute, but a VAR review overturned it, with the call confirmed in the 4th minute that the goal wouldn't count. Barely a minute later came the play that did change the game: Jeanuël Belocian brought down Ante Budimir inside the box, a foul that earned Álvaro Mantilla a yellow card, and Budimir made no mistake from the spot.

With the lead secured so early, Osasuna had chances to extend it over the first 45 minutes: Dubasin tested the keeper three times from near the box without luck, Rubén García also had a go with a header, and Racing Santander answered with a shot or two from Sergio Canales and Matteo Prati without causing much trouble. The first half ended 1-0, a scoreline that undersold the chances the home side had created.

In the second half, Racing Santander had their best spell of the game, with Canales, Andrés Martín and later Pablo García looking for the equalizer from outside the box, but none of those shots found the net. Osasuna, for their part, kept pushing forward through Osambela, Enzo Boyomo and Rubén García, until the match was put to bed for good in the 87th minute: after a counterattack, Iñigo Arguibide tried his luck first, and off the rebound, Osambela finished left-footed from the center of the box to make it 2-0.

What the numbers say

Osasuna's dominance in attack showed up clearly in the stats, though not in possession: Racing Santander controlled the ball more, but it was Osasuna who kept pressing into the opposing box.

That gap of 20 shots to 9, and especially 7 on target against just 1, also shows up in the post-match xG estimate: our model gives Osasuna 3.91 expected goals against just 0.317 for Racing Santander, a gulf that confirms the home side created far more danger than the final score actually reflected.

Ahead of the match, we had projected a 55% win probability for Osasuna, a 22% chance of a draw and 23% for Racing Santander, with expected goals of 2.35 for the home side and 1.52 for the visitors. The outcome lined up with that favoritism, though with fewer total goals than projected: the final 2-0 fit well with Osasuna's expected win, just with a tighter scoreline than forecast.

The result leaves Osasuna on 11 points from 9 matches played, in ninth place, while Racing Santander sit on 8 points also from 9 matches, in 16th place, a gap of 3 points between the two sides. For Jagoba Arrasate's side, it was an afternoon of late efficiency after dominating for most of the match; for José Alberto López's team, it was another loss weighing on a season still searching for direction.