Osasuna storms back past ten-man Celta after Marcos Alonso red card

Iago Aspas had put Celta up 1-0 with a quarter of an hour on the clock, curling a right-footed strike from outside the box that had Balaídos roaring. Everything pointed to a comfortable afternoon for Celta Vigo. But a refereeing incident right at the start of the second half changed the entire script, and Osasuna walked away with all three points thanks to a 1-2 that leaves the Galician side feeling like they let a seemingly comfortable lead slip through their fingers.

The match broke open in barely ten minutes of second-half action. In the 47th minute, VAR reviewed and overturned an initial red card shown to Marcos Alonso, but the calm didn't last: in the 50th minute, the Celta defender ended up seeing red anyway, and the home side was down to ten men. Osasuna made the most of the extra man. Just three minutes later, Kike Barja leveled things with a right-footed finish from the center of the box, set up by Raúl García. Then in the 63rd minute, a handball penalty committed by Javi Galán inside the area was converted by Ante Budimir with his left foot, tucked in right by the post, to make it a final 1-2.

Trailing on the scoreboard and down a man, Celta pushed in the closing stretch. Jones El Abdellaoui tried his luck from outside the box in the 78th minute and Carl Starfelt headed one in stoppage time, but both attempts ran into a stubborn visiting defense. Osasuna, for its part, had chances right up to the final whistle to extend the lead, with Ante Budimir continuing to press in the box during stoppage time, which ran to eight added minutes.

What the numbers show

Celta controlled slightly more possession, but Osasuna was clearly superior in generating danger, a gap that widened after the red card. The difference in shots and clear-cut chances reflects the visitors' second-half dominance well.

The xG generated in the match, an in-house estimate calculated from shot locations, is even more telling: 0.139 for Celta versus 2.253 for Osasuna. That number confirms what played out on the field: after Aspas's goal, the Vigo side barely threatened the opposing goal again, while Osasuna piled up clear chances, with Budimir standing out as the main threat.

The projection we published in our preview gave Celta Vigo a 47% chance of winning, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an Osasuna victory, with expected goals of 1.60 for the home side and 1.12 for the visitors. The final result contradicts that read: the team given fewer chances on paper walked away with all three points, largely thanks to the red card that smoothed their path.

What the result means in the standings

In LaLiga, Osasuna's win brings them to four points on the season, with a record of one win and one draw through two matches, putting them just 3 points behind Celta Vigo in the table. The Vigo side, meanwhile, is left with just one point, the product of a draw and a loss in their first two outings. With only two matchdays played, the table still says little about either team's true level, but the loss leaves Celta still searching for their first win of the season, while Osasuna departs Balaídos with a result that the preview itself hadn't marked as the likeliest outcome.