Óskarsson's strike gives Real Sociedad the win as Rayo Vallecano rattle the post

The counterattack made the difference. In the 66th minute, Ander Barrenetxea caught Rayo Vallecano's defense off guard with a through ball that left Orri Óskarsson alone in front of goal, and he finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 1-0. That goal proved enough for Real Sociedad to take all three points at Estadio Municipal de Anoeta in a LaLiga clash.

The first half went back and forth, with neither goalkeeper forced into much work. Rayo Vallecano gave an early warning with a shot from Giorgi Tsitaishvili that Álex Remiro saved comfortably, while Real Sociedad kept piling up chances: Takefusa Kubo, Luka Sucic and Beñat Turrientes all tried their luck from different spots, but neither the crossbar nor the visiting goal ever came under real threat. The teams went into the break scoreless, though the home side had done the bulk of the creating.

The second half followed the same pattern: Real Sociedad kept pushing down the flanks and through set pieces, with shots from Igor Zubeldia and Beñat Turrientes handled without trouble by Emil Audero, while Rayo Vallecano answered through Jorge de Frutos, who forced a strong save from the home goalkeeper toward the top corner. Pellegrino Matarazzo's substitutions, bringing on Gonçalo Guedes and Héctor Fort, injected fresh legs right before the decisive play. After Óskarsson's goal, Rayo Vallecano turned to its bench, sending on Isi Palazón, Randy Nteka and Gnangoro in search of an equalizer, and came close: Isi Palazón struck the post in stoppage time, capping a frantic finish that had more heart than clarity.

What the numbers showed

The stat sheet was tight, confirming just how close the result was. Real Sociedad had slightly more possession and considerably more shots overall, but the two sides finished level on shots on target and big chances.

According to our own expected goals estimate, calculated from the shots taken in the match, Real Sociedad generated 1.78 and Rayo Vallecano 1.74, a razor-thin gap suggesting the game could easily have produced more goals than it did, and that the final score didn't stray far from what each team created going forward.

Beforehand, our model gave Real Sociedad a 48% chance of winning, against 26% for a draw and another 26% for Rayo Vallecano, with expected goals of 1.79 for the home side and 1.28 for the visitors. The outcome lined up with that forecast: Real Sociedad won, though by the slimmest of margins and in a game tighter than those numbers suggested it would be.

What's at stake in the standings

The win moves Real Sociedad up to fifth place with 22 points, 10 clear of Rayo Vallecano, who stay in 15th with 12 points. They're different snapshots of the season so far, but Sunday's result bore out the trend those numbers already pointed to: Real Sociedad remains in the upper tier of the table, while Rayo Vallecano still needs points to pull away from the lower reaches.

With the win, Real Sociedad adds another chapter to what has been an up-and-down campaign, while Rayo Vallecano leaves Anoeta having matched their hosts for long stretches of play, but without the goal they needed to take anything from the game.