Pachuca favored against a struggling Necaxa winless in eight straight meetings

The most striking number heading into this matchup at Estadio Hidalgo is the head-to-head history: in the last eight meetings between these two clubs, Necaxa hasn't beaten Pachuca a single time. The hosts have won six, two ended in draws, and the aggregate score sits at 20 goals to 10 in favor of the Tuzos. That record carries weight now that both teams arrive in need of points in the Liga MX standings.

Pachuca sits 11th with a record of 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in 10 matches played, scoring 15 goals and allowing 11. Over its last five matches the club has picked up two wins, two draws and one loss, an uneven stretch but without back-to-back defeats. Necaxa, meanwhile, is going through a far rougher patch: the club sits 17th with 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the tournament, with a negative goal difference of eight (12 scored, 20 allowed). Over its last five matches Necaxa has managed just one draw and lost four in a row, the worst form of either side set to take the field today. The gap between the two clubs in the standings stands at four points.

It's also worth looking at a few season trends, though these come from a different sample than the tournament record and shouldn't be conflated with it. Playing at home in the 2026 Liga MX Apertura, Pachuca has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2 allowed per match across four games, without a single clean sheet, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 76th and 90th minutes. Salomon Rondon stands out as the team's top scorer in that sample, with 10 goals. On the other side, Necaxa on the road has averaged 1 goal scored and 2 allowed across four matches, also without any clean sheets, and tends to score earlier, between kickoff and the 15th minute. Julian Carranza leads that category with 6 goals.

Probable lineups

Based on recent lineups, Pachuca, under coach Benjamin Mora, would take the field with Carlos Moreno in goal; Francisco Venegas, Sergio Barreto, Eduardo Bauermann and Carlos Sanchez across the back line; Christian Rivera, Alan Bautista, Oussama Idrissi, Sergio Rodriguez and Kenedy in midfield, with Salomon Rondon leading the attack. This is a projected lineup with a high degree of confidence based on available data.

Necaxa, led by Juan Reynoso, would likely line up with Luis Jimenez between the posts; Kaiky Naves, Agustin Oliveros, Raul Martinez and Carlos Vargas in defense; Matias Espindola, Owen Gonzalez, Lorenzo Faravelli, Pedro Pedraza and Javier Ruiz in midfield, with Julian Carranza up front. In this case the projection carries a medium level of confidence.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to Pachuca, though it doesn't rule out a road upset. Here's how the probabilities break down:

This is our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Expected goals also back up the home team's favorite status: 1.87 for Pachuca compared to 0.98 for Necaxa, a combined total of 2.85. On top of that, the model puts the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals at 63 percent, and the chance of both teams scoring at 100 percent.

With Pachuca looking to rediscover consistency and Necaxa trying to snap a losing skid, the history and the numbers point to a match with goals on both ends, though with the edge tilted toward the home side.