Pachuca and Puebla Look to Snap Out of Slump in Liga MX

Estadio Hidalgo hosts a clash of two teams in need when Pachuca and Puebla face off in Liga MX. Both sides sit in the lower half of the table and are dragging negative runs into this matchup, turning it into a chance to right the ship before the season slips away from them.

How the Teams Arrive

Pachuca sits in 13th place with just 3 points, the product of one win and two losses in three matches played, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. The mood around the team is concerning: over the last five matches they have four losses and just one win, though that win came in the most recent outing, which could be a sign of a turnaround. The club averages 1.33 goals scored per game and 1 conceded, with Salomon Rondon standing out as the top offensive threat with 3 goals, backed by Elias Montiel with one.

Puebla comes in at 11th place, also with few points (4) after a record of one win, one draw and one loss in three games, with 3 goals scored and 3 allowed. Its recent form is no more encouraging: four losses and a draw in the last five matches. The Camoteros average 1 goal scored and 1 allowed per game, with Ignacio Maestro Puch, Fernando Monarrez and Eduardo Mustre as their only scorers, each with one goal.

The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 1 point, reflecting how even their seasons have been so far.

History Favors Pachuca

The head to head record speaks for itself: in 8 matches played, Pachuca has won 5, there have been 3 draws, and Puebla has yet to win in that span. The goal difference is lopsided too: 21 for the home side against 11 for Puebla.

Possible Lineups

With medium reliability, Pachuca's projected starting eleven would have Carlos Moreno in goal, a back line featuring Eduardo Bauermann, Sergio Barreto, Alan Mozo, Mauricio Isais and Francisco Venegas, a midfield of Oussama Idrissi, Elias Montiel, Christian Rivera and Kenedy, with Salomon Rondon leading the line up front.

Puebla, also based on estimates, could field Ricardo Gutierrez between the posts, with Juan Vargas, Fernando Monarrez, Facundo Almada and Iker Moreno across the back, a midfield of Alejandro Organista, Kevin Velasco, Emiliano Gomez, Sergio Sanabria and Alberto Herrera, and Eduardo Mustre up top.

Odds and Numbers

According to EnPelotas' own projection, the match looks tight, with a slight lean toward the home side:

All three outcomes remain fairly close, so there's no clear favorite despite Pachuca's historical edge. Expected goals, also an in-house estimate, put the scoreline at around 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 1 for Puebla, for a total of 2.17. On top of that, the trends point to a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams score, suggesting an open contest rather than a tactical lockdown.

With two teams desperate for results and history on the home side's side, Estadio Hidalgo could see an intense match where every point matters in the climb up the table.