Palermo Survives Scare, Routs Mantova 5-2 in Coppa Italia

It took Gabriel Strefezza just eight minutes to put Palermo ahead and set the tone for what would finish as a 5-2 rout of Mantova at the Renzo Barbera. But in between, there was a stretch of the second half where the match got dicey, with Mantova drawing level in barely three minutes, before Palermo reasserted control in this Coppa Italia clash.

Strefezza broke the deadlock with an angled finish from the right, set up by Claudio Gomes. Mantova had a case for an equalizer before the break: right at the end of the first half, Ettore Gliozzi put the ball in the net, but VAR overturned the goal after review, leaving the score at 1-0 for Palermo at halftime.

The Stretch That Changed Everything

The second half opened with another refereeing decision, this time in Palermo's favor: a penalty for a foul by Alessio Castellini on Dominic Vavassori, which Antonio Palumbo converted in the 50th minute to make it 2-0. At that point, the match looked to be cruising toward a comfortable finish. Far from it: just a minute later, Francesco Ruocco pulled one back on a counterattack, and barely three minutes after that, Rachid Kouda, assisted by Rares Ilie, made it 2-2. In the span of four minutes, Mantova had wiped out the entire lead.

Palermo answered with substitutions and a goal from Joel Pohjanpalo in the 69th minute, again off a counterattack, assisted by Dennis Johnsen, to make it 3-2. The rest of the match proved uphill for Mantova: Johnsen extended the lead in the 88th minute with a close-range finish, assisted by Jacopo Segre, and then in stoppage time, in the 94th minute, Pohjanpalo scored his second goal of the afternoon, assisted by Vavassori, to seal the final 5-2.

The Numbers Behind the Result

Notably, Mantova controlled more of the possession and finished with the same number of shots as Palermo, but efficiency made the difference.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Palermo generated 2.88 expected goals against 0.97 for Mantova, a gap that does reflect how things ultimately played out on the scoreboard, even though the path there included that rough patch where Mantova came within a goal of truly complicating the afternoon.

Before kickoff, our projections gave Palermo a 57% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of a Mantova victory, with expected goals of 1.89 for the home side and 0.98 for the visitors. The final result ended up exceeding that forecast in total goals, though a Palermo win was indeed the outcome our numbers favored most heavily.

The match also produced two bookings per side: Rares Ilie and Francesco Ruocco for Mantova, Alessandro Gabrielloni for Palermo, in a contest where VAR played a leading role both in disallowing and awarding goals. In the end, Palermo walked away with a clear-cut win, but those three minutes in which Mantova drew level make clear this was no formality.