Palmeiras Lets Slip Late Lead as Own Goal Hands Cerro Porteño a Draw

Palmeiras couldn't hold onto its lead at Nubank Parque and ended up drawing 1-1 with Cerro Porteño in the Round of 16 match of the Copa Libertadores. The home side controlled nearly the entire game, played more than twenty minutes down a man, and still watched a seemingly decided win slip away thanks to a stoppage time own goal.

The first half was a Palmeiras monologue without a payoff. Allan was the most persistent threat, firing off several shots from outside the box that were all handled by the Paraguayan goalkeeper, while Jose Manuel Lopez also tried his luck without success. Cerro Porteño defended in an organized fashion and only threatened once, with a header from Cecilio Dominguez that drifted wide. The score remained scoreless at halftime despite the home side's clear dominance.

The second half opened with a shot from Jhon Arias that struck the left post, a sign that the pressure was starting to near a breakthrough. But the decisive stretch came after the 69th minute: Guillermo Benitez put the ball in the net for Cerro Porteño, though VAR overturned the goal. Just three minutes later, with the decision confirmed, a scuffle broke out on the field that ended with Andreas Pereira sent off in the 72nd minute, leaving Palmeiras with ten men.

Far from retreating, the home side found the breakthrough while a man down: in the 81st minute, Jose Manuel Lopez finished with his left foot inside the box off a headed assist from Marlon Freitas to make it 1-0. It looked like the decisive blow, but deep into stoppage time, in the 92nd minute, an own goal by Carlos Miguel made it 1-1 final, leaving Cerro Porteño with a draw that carries considerable weight in the overall tie, given it came away from home and against a Palmeiras side down a man.

The numbers behind the home side's dominance

The stats reflect Palmeiras' superiority throughout the match, something that stands in contrast with the final result:

The xG estimate calculated from the match's shots reinforces that picture: Palmeiras generated 2.187 expected goals to just 0.528 for the Paraguayan side, a gap that confirms the home team deserved far more than what it ultimately got on the scoreboard.

What the preview said

Before the match, the published projection gave Palmeiras a 42% chance of winning, a 34% chance of a draw and 24% in favor of Cerro Porteño, with expected goals of 1.17 for the home side and 0.83 for the visitors. The outcome ended up landing close to the draw scenario, though not because of an even match: Palmeiras generated far more than projected and still couldn't close out the win, undone by the red card and by an own goal in stoppage time.

What the result leaves behind

Palmeiras is left with the feeling of having let a lead slip away that it built through created chances and prolonged spells in the opponent's half, even while playing a man down from the 72nd minute on. Cerro Porteño, for its part, held firm, capitalized on the rival's late mistake, and grabbed a point that revives its chances in the Round of 16. The tie remains open and will now come down to what happens in the next leg.