Palmeiras knocks out Cerro Porteño with Gustavo Gomez header in Asuncion

Palmeiras picked up a heavyweight win in Asuncion, beating Cerro Porteño 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo La Nueva Olla in the second leg of the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. The lone goal of the match, scored by Gustavo Gomez, gave the Brazilian side a win that came right before halftime and one they defended with discipline throughout the second half.

Cerro Porteño had drawn 1-1 in the first leg of this round, played at home against Palmeiras, while the Sao Paulo club had also drawn on home turf against the Paraguayan side. With that history, this second chapter opened wide open, and it felt that way in the early minutes.

An even first half broken by a set piece

The match kicked off with Cerro Porteño looking to control things through possession, and Ignacio Aliseda gave an early warning in the 1st minute with a shot that went just wide of the far post. Palmeiras answered through Vitor Roque and constant appearances from Jhon Arias down the flanks. The home side had its best stretch between minutes 16 and 30, with attempts from Alexis Cañete and Ivan Ramirez, plus a header from Lucas Quintana that drew a strong save from the visiting goalkeeper.

Still, it was Palmeiras that struck first, and at just the right moment. In the 40th minute, off a corner kick, Jhon Arias whipped in a precise cross that Gustavo Gomez met with a header, burying it into the top left corner: 0-1. It was the play that decided the scoreline, coming just minutes after Arias himself had set up another Lucas Evangelista shot that had gone just wide. The first half ended with that narrow lead for the Brazilians.

Cerro Porteño pushed, but couldn't find the net

In the second half, the Paraguayan side moved quickly with substitutions, bringing on Mateo Klimowicz for Ivan Ramirez, then later making changes with Guillermo Benitez and Juan Iturbe as they looked to freshen up the attack. Palmeiras, comfortable with the scoreline, managed the clock and created sporadic danger through Murilo, Gustavo Gomez and Allan, without adding to the lead. Cerro Porteño had its best chances to equalize late on: a header from Jonatan Torres in the 87th minute that was saved low to the ground, and a shot from Pablo Vegetti in stoppage time that was also turned away. Referee Facundo Tello added six minutes at the end of the match, but the visitors' defense held firm, and the 0-1 scoreline stood at the final whistle.

By the numbers

The numbers reflect just how even the match was: Cerro Porteño controlled the ball more and won more corners, but Palmeiras was more efficient in the final third. According to an in-house estimate calculated after the match based on shot location, the xG for the game was 1.29 for the home side and 1.33 for the visitors, figures that confirm how tight the chances were on both sides, even though only one team managed to convert.

What the preview said versus what happened on the field

Before kickoff, our projection gave Cerro Porteño a 37% chance of winning, a 36% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Palmeiras win, with combined expected goals of 1.83 (1.00 for the home side and 0.83 for the visitors). The final result proved out the least likely of the three scenarios: Palmeiras, the side given the smallest chance on paper, walked away with all three points thanks to a decisive finish off a set piece.

What the result means

Palmeiras leaves Asuncion with a valuable win that lets it close out this round of 16 tie with the more recent result in its favor, while Cerro Porteño is left with the feeling of having matched its rival in overall play without being able to turn it into a goal. The outcome of this Copa Libertadores tie will be determined by the aggregate of both legs.