Parma and Udinese Fight for Survival at the Bottom of Serie A

Some matches explain themselves just by looking at the table, and this is one of them: Parma, sitting 19th, hosts Udinese, in 17th, with just a single point separating the two sides at the bottom of Serie A. The game is at the Ennio Tardini, and the stakes are simple: climb out of the hole, or sink even deeper.

Alberto Gilardino's Parma arrive with one win, one draw and six losses in eight league matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 15. The last five games haven't offered much relief either: four defeats and just one win. Udinese, under Kosta Runjaic, have an almost identical record in the league (one win, one draw, six losses, though with 9 goals scored and 18 conceded) and arrive in even worse shape, having lost their last five matches in a row.

At home in Serie A this season, in a small sample of just 4 matches, Parma average 0.76 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and tend to score more between the 31st and 45th minutes. David Romero, Simone Lontani and Pontus Almqvist stand out as their top scoring threats in that sample. On the road, Udinese, in a sample of only 3 away matches, average 2.347 goals scored and 2.987 conceded, also without a single clean sheet, with Jurgen Ekkelenkamp the most frequent name among their scorers.

What the History Shows

The two sides have met 8 times before, with 3 wins for Parma, 4 for Udinese and one draw, and the goals split dead even at 12 apiece. A head-to-head record that, much like the current form of both clubs, doesn't lean clearly either way.

Possible Lineups

Parma's projected lineup, rated medium confidence based on recent matches, could see Edoardo Corvi in goal; a back line of Diego Carlos, Emanuele Valeri, Enrico Delprato and Mariano Troilo; Mandela Keita, Vincent Sierro and Sascha Britschgi in midfield; and El Bilal Touré, David Romero and Giovanni Fabbian up front.

For Udinese, also listed as probable, Maduka Okoye is expected in goal; a defensive line with James Abankwah, Enzo Ebosse, Christian Kabasele and Oumar Solet; Jesper Karlström, Hassane Kamara and Mërgim Vojvoda in midfield; and an attacking trio of Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Keinan Davis and Giorgi Chakvetadze.

What the Numbers Say

Our model doesn't find a clear favorite in this clash between two sides desperate for points.

All three outcomes are essentially split into thirds, with a slight lean toward a visiting win. These are figures from our own projection model, not betting odds. As for expected goals, our model projects 1 for Parma and 1.09 for Udinese, a combined 2.09 that lines up with a 75% probability of over 2.5 total goals in the match and a 50% chance that both teams find the net.

With neither side able to afford another slip-up, the Tardini hosts a direct battle at the bottom of the table where any result would do little to change the mere 0-point gap that currently separates them in the standings.