Peterborough and Reading Meet in FA Cup with History and Odds Nearly Even

The FA Cup has that magic of putting teams from different divisions on the same field under the same rules, and that's exactly what happens this weekend at the Weston Homes Stadium: Peterborough United host Reading with a spot in the next round up for grabs.

Neither team comes in brimming with confidence. Peterborough, managed by Robbie Savage, have put together an uneven run over their last five matches: two wins, a draw and two losses, with the most recent defeat coming right before this tie. Leam Richardson's Reading haven't quite found their footing either, winning just one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, with their most recent result also a defeat. These are two teams heading into the FA Cup looking for a confidence boost more than confirming good form.

As for the trends in this season's 2025 FA Cup, Peterborough have played two matches, home and away, with clean sheets in 50% of them and a tendency to score between the 31st and 45th minutes, with Harry Leonard as their top scorer in that sample. Reading, who have played just one match in the competition this season, failed to keep a clean sheet in that lone outing, though they also found the net in that same 31-45 window, through Lewis Wing. These are very small samples, so they should be taken as a brushstroke rather than a full picture.

What the History Says

Between them, the two sides have met eight times, with a slight edge for Reading: three wins to Peterborough's two, with three draws. In terms of goals, Reading also come out on top, with 12 scored compared to Peterborough's 9 across that head-to-head history.

Possible Lineups

With the caveat that these are estimated lineups of low reliability, drawn from each team's recent matches, Peterborough could field Alex Bass in goal, with Harley Mills, David Okagbue, James Dornelly and Lucca Mendonca across the back line, Harry Leonard, Brandon Khela, Owura Edwards and Ben Woods in midfield, and Bolu Shofowoke up top. Reading, for their part, could line up with Joel Pereira in goal, Paudie O'Connor, Jeriel Dorsett, Haydon Roberts and Ryan Nyambe across the back four, Daniel Kyerewaa, Liam Fraser, Paddy Lane and Lewis Wing in midfield, and Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan leading the attack.

Our model, based on this season's trends, sees this match as essentially even, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The numbers don't point to a clear favorite: just three percentage points separate the two teams, and the draw isn't far behind either. Our expected goals projection doesn't tilt the balance much further: 1.52 for Peterborough and 1.56 for Reading, for an estimated total of 3.08 goals suggesting an open contest. It's worth clarifying that this is our own estimate derived from the season's trends, not a definitive prediction or a betting line.

With recent history split and the odds nearly level, everything points to an FA Cup tie where any small detail, a goal in the closing stretch of the first half or a defensive mistake, could tip the scales.