Philadelphia Union ride five-game win streak into Eastern Conference showdown with Charlotte FC

Five wins in a row. That's how Philadelphia Union arrive at this matchup at Subaru Park, a run that has put them right back in the hunt for the top of the East just when they looked like they might fall off the pace. Standing across from them will be Charlotte FC, just a single point ahead in the standings, in a head-to-head battle between two teams playing for more than just three points in the MLS Eastern Conference.

The Union sit sixth with 45 points, the product of 13 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 29 matches, with 59 goals scored and 46 allowed. But the number that matters most right now is a different one: they haven't lost any of their last five games, winning all of them. Charlotte, meanwhile, sit fifth with 46 points (13-7-9, with 51 goals scored and 43 allowed), but their recent form has been shakier: one draw, two wins and two losses in their last five outings. The gap between the two sides in the table is just a single point, which makes clear that Subaru Park could directly shuffle the standings.

It's worth looking at how each side performs depending on venue, too. Playing at home in MLS this season, the Union average 1.781 goals scored and 0.994 allowed per game across a sample of 14 matches, with a 36% clean sheet rate, and they tend to do most of their damage between the 46th and 60th minutes. Charlotte, as road players over that same 14-game sample, average 1.574 goals scored and 1.926 allowed, with just a 14% clean sheet rate, and their most productive stretch comes between the 16th and 30th minutes. These numbers come from different contexts than the overall table, but they help paint a picture of each team's profile in its current role.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite either: of the 8 matches played, the Union have won 3, Charlotte have won 3 and there have been 2 draws, with 7 goals for the Union and 9 for Charlotte overall.

Probable lineups

Ryan Richter, in charge of the Union, would likely stick with much of the group that has reeled off this winning streak: Andre Blake in goal, with Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Neil Pierre and Frankie Westfield across the back line. In midfield, look for Jovan Lukic, Cavan Sullivan, Indiana Vassilev and Danley Jean Jacques, with Bruno Damiani and Milan Iloski up top, the latter the top scorer in the home sample with 18 goals over those 14 games.

On Charlotte's side, with somewhat less certainty in the projection, the expected lineup would have Kristijan Kahlina between the posts, Henry Kessler, Tim Ream, Nathan Byrne and Will Cleary on defense, Allan Saint-Maximin, Pep Biel, Liel Abada, Ashley Westwood and Brandt Bronico in midfield, and Idan Toklomati leading the attack. Biel and Toklomati share the top of the scoring charts in that road sample, with 12 goals apiece.

What the numbers say

Our model gives the Union a bit of an edge for playing at home and for the form they're carrying, but there's no overwhelming favorite here: that 49% leaves the door open to both a draw and a road upset. The expected goals numbers reflect that too: 1.87 for the Union against 1.31 for Charlotte, a combined total of 3.18 that lines up with a 64% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams find the net. These are our own estimates, worth remembering, not a sportsbook's odds.

With just a point separating them in the standings and a five-game winning streak behind the home side, Subaru Park is shaping up for a game that looks even on paper, but with the Union carrying momentum into kickoff.