Philadelphia Union ride five-game win streak into clash with struggling Real Salt Lake

Five straight wins. That's how Philadelphia Union arrives at this matchup at Subaru Park, riding a streak that has them playing with maximum confidence right when points matter most in MLS. Across the field will be Real Salt Lake, coming off four losses in their last five matches, snapping that skid with a win only in their most recent outing. The contrast in form is the big storyline heading into this one.

In the Eastern Conference standings, Union sit sixth with 39 points, built on 11 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses across 27 matches, with 54 goals scored and 44 allowed. Real Salt Lake, meanwhile, sit 11th with 30 points, after 9 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses, scoring 40 goals while conceding 44. The exact points gap between the two sides wasn't specified, but their positions in the table already tell you who's in better shape right now.

Worth noting, and this shouldn't be confused with the overall league record: at home this season, Union are averaging 1.765 goals scored per game and just 0.997 allowed, keeping a clean sheet in 39% of matches, across a sample of 13 games. Their most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. On the other side, Real Salt Lake on the road over that same 13-game sample are scoring 0.997 goals per match but allowing 1.848, without a single clean sheet (0%), and tend to find the net most often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Those numbers paint a tough picture for the visitors away from home.

Looking at top scorers from those home and away samples, Milan Iloski leads Union with 16 goals, followed by Bruno Damiani with 8 and Cavan Sullivan with 7. For Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans tops the list with 11 goals and Diego Luna has added 5.

What the history says

The head-to-head record actually tilts toward Real Salt Lake: of the 8 meetings between these clubs, Union have won 1, Real Salt Lake have won 4, and 3 have ended in draws. In terms of goals, Union have scored 13 while Real Salt Lake have scored 17. Those numbers stand in contrast to Union's strong current form, a reminder that this series hasn't always smiled on the Pennsylvania side.

Projected lineups

For Philadelphia Union, the projected lineup (high confidence based on recent matches) would have Andre Blake in goal, a back line of Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Neil Pierre and Frankie Westfield, a midfield of Jovan Lukic, Indiana Vassilev, Danley Jean Jacques and Cavan Sullivan, and an attacking duo of Bruno Damiani and Milan Iloski up top.

For Real Salt Lake, with lower confidence in the projection, Rafael Cabral would start in goal, with a back line of DeAndre Yedlin, Philip Quinton and Kobi Henry, a midfield of Noel Caliskan, Juan Manuel Sanabria and Saba Lobjanidze, and a crowded attack featuring Sergi Solans, Morgan Guilavogui, Aiden Hezarkhani and Luca Moisa.

What the odds say

Our model gives a clear edge to Philadelphia Union, though it doesn't rule out other outcomes. Here's how the numbers break down:

The model also projects expected goals of 2.08 for Union and 1.12 for Real Salt Lake, with an estimated total of 3.2 goals in the match. On top of that, trends point to a 58% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 59% chance both teams find the net. All of this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, and shouldn't be taken as a locked-in prediction or a betting line.

With Union red-hot and Real Salt Lake searching for answers away from home, Subaru Park is set for a match where the home team's momentum runs head-on into the visitors' urgency.