Platense looks to break its jinx against Newell's in Vicente López

Platense hasn't won at home in quite a while and comes into this matchup needing badly to snap an uncomfortable streak: over its last five games, the club has piled up three losses, one draw and just a single win. Standing across from them will be Newell's Old Boys, a team that hasn't won in its last three outings either, all draws, but hasn't lost in a good while. The venue is Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López, and what's on the line is a pure midtable battle in the Argentine Primera División.

So far this tournament, Platense has posted a record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in 9 matches, with 9 goals scored and 14 allowed, numbers that leave it in 13th place in Group A with 9 points. Newell's, meanwhile, has 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses over the same number of matches, with 10 goals scored and 8 allowed, sitting ninth with 13 points. The gap between the two in the standings is just 4 points, which confirms how tight this matchup is, even though recent form leans more toward the visitors.

There's a stat worth examining carefully and keeping separate from the above: playing at home this 2026 season, Platense averages 0.5 goals scored and 1 allowed per game across a sample of 8 matches, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and tends to score more in the first 15 minutes. Newell's, in its role as visitor and also over 8 matches this season, averages 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 allowed, without a single clean sheet in that sample, and its most productive stretch comes between minutes 76 and 90. These are contextual trends, not the tournament result itself, but they point to a Newell's side that tends to keep pushing until the final whistle.

A history that favors the visitors

The head-to-head record doesn't help Platense either: in 8 previous meetings, it has never beaten Newell's. There were 6 draws and 2 wins for Newell's, with a clear goal difference: 6 for the Rosario club against just 2 for the home side.

Likely lineups

With reliability marked as low, Platense's probable lineup would once again feature Juan Pablo Cozzani in goal, a starter in 6 of the last 6 matches, alongside names like Ignacio Vázquez, Tomás Silva, Guido Mainero and Martín Barrios, regulars in the recent setup. For Newell's, with an estimated medium reliability, the projected lineup includes Josué Reinatti between the posts, Lautaro Giannetti, Facundo Guch, Luca Regiardo and Walter Mazzantti as fixtures, with Matías Cóccaro as the attacking reference.

The top scorers from each squad in their respective trend samples also offer some clues: Augusto Lotti, Tomás Nasif and Franco Zapiola share the top spot with 2 goals each in Platense's home performance, while Ignacio Ramírez comfortably leads Newell's production on the road, with 4 goals.

What the odds say

Our model has Platense as a slight favorite, though the margin is narrow and a draw carries almost as much weight as either team winning:

Expected goals are also close: 1.16 for Platense versus 0.93 for Newell's, for an estimated total of 2.09 goals in the match. It's worth clarifying that this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Other indicators from the model point to a 38% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring.

With Platense desperate to rediscover a home win and Newell's trying to keep its recent unbeaten run alive, this matchup in Vicente López promises to be closer to a coin flip than a blowout.