Platense beats Fluminense 2-1 but is eliminated from the Copa Libertadores

Guido Mainero curled a half-turn finish inside the box to light up the Ciudad de Vicente Lopez, and from there Platense never let go of the lead until the final whistle: 2-1 over Fluminense in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores quarterfinals. The result, though, wasn't enough. The road already traveled in the tie left Fluminense as the club moving on to the next round, after having won the first leg 2-0.

The first half belonged entirely to Platense. Nicolas Retamar tried his luck from several spots without finding the target, until, in the 29th minute, Mainero connected with a right-footed strike from inside the box that found the middle of the goal for the 1-0. Martin Palermo's side didn't ease off, and right at the start of the second half came the blow that seemed to seal the story for the home side: in the 46th minute, on the last play of the first half, Bruno Sepulveda headed in a cross from Mainero himself toward the left corner for the 2-0 that sent the team into the break.

Fluminense, who had been outplayed in almost every phase of the first 45 minutes, found a quick response after the restart. In the 56th minute, off a counterattack, Hulk set up Agustin Canobbio, who finished with his right foot from inside the box to make it 2-1. That goal added tension to the rest of the match, though Fluminense couldn't find the equalizer: Hulk tried his left foot near the box without success and missed again from point-blank range late on, while Platense kept pushing for a third with crosses and headers that Fabio and his teammates managed to clear off the line.

What the numbers say

Platense led in nearly every category on the night: it controlled possession, generated more shots and stayed closer to the opposing goal, something also reflected in the xG (expected goals) calculated from the shots taken in the match, an in-house estimate and not an official figure: 1.93 for the home side against 1.06 for Fluminense.

Heading into the match, our projection gave Fluminense a 47% chance of winning, against 20% for Platense and 33% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.24 for the visitors and 0.71 for the home side. What happened on the field was the exact opposite on the scoreboard: Platense won comfortably and controlled much of the play. But the overall result of the tie ended up matching the favoritism that projection had suggested, just by a different route: Fluminense arrived at this match with a 2-0 cushion built in the first leg, which proved enough despite tonight's loss.

The road to this point

Fluminense had advanced to this round after a 0-0 draw at home and a 1-1 result on the road against Independiente Rivadavia in the round of 16, while Platense had eliminated Coquimbo Unido with a 1-1 draw away from home and a 0-0 result in which it won on the road. That road solidity served Fluminense well in this tie too: it came into the second leg having won the first 2-0 at home, a cushion that ended up being decisive despite Platense's dominant showing in Vicente Lopez.

What this match leaves behind, then, is a Platense win that doesn't change the outcome of the tie: a victory earned on its own merits, with Mainero as the standout for his goal and assist, but not enough against what Fluminense had already settled in the first leg.