Portland Timbers Clear Favorites Against Tijuana in Clash of Contrasting Form

Providence Park hosts an unusual matchup on this occasion: Portland Timbers, at home, take on Club Tijuana in a game that pits together two teams in completely different situations according to the Group 1 standings, though it's worth noting that this grouping combines MLS franchises with Mexican soccer clubs in the same bracket, an unusual setup that alone makes this matchup worth watching.

How Both Teams Arrive

Portland has posted a record of 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss in two matches played in the tournament, with 6 goals scored and 5 allowed. Looking at their most recent form over the last five matches (a sample that includes games from other competitions), the Timbers have three wins, one draw and one loss, with a draw followed by three straight victories before falling in their latest outing. Offensively they're averaging 2.22 goals per game while conceding 1.66, with clean sheets in just 11% of matches, painting the picture of a team that's wide open at both ends. Their most productive stretch comes between the 61st and 75th minutes, and Kevin Kelsy leads the way as their top scorer with 9 goals, followed by Kristoffer Velde (4) and Cole Bassett (3).

Tijuana is off to a very different start in this tournament: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with no goals scored and 3 allowed across their two matches. Their recent five-game stretch tells a different story, though, with two wins, one draw and two losses, though the two most recent were defeats. Their most eye-catching stat is a 100% clean sheet rate, a figure that stands in stark contrast to their scoreless run in the tournament and suggests a still very small sample size. They tend to do their damage in the first 15 minutes of matches, and their key attacking names are Mourad El Ghezouani (2 goals), Gilberto Mora (1) and Ramiro Arciga (1).

In the group standings, Portland sits 13th with 3 points from 2 matches played, while Tijuana is second with 7 points, though that spot actually corresponds to a different tally of matches played by Real Salt Lake occupying the same numerical slot. These standings should be taken with caution, since with only two or three matchdays played by each club, the table still says little about the real level of each squad.

Possible Lineups

As an estimate, and not an official confirmation, Portland would likely start James Pantemis in goal, a back four of Brandon Bye, Finn Surman, Kamal Miller and Jimer Fory, and a midfield of Ariel Lassiter, Diego Chara, Cole Bassett, David da Costa and Kristoffer Velde, with Kevin Kelsy as the focal point up top.

Tijuana, also on a probable basis, would field Antonio Rodriguez between the posts, with Jackson Porozo, Alejandro Gomez, Rafael Fernandez and Pablo Ortiz in defense, Adonis Preciado, Ramiro Arciga, Ivan Tona, Ignacio Rivero and Gilberto Mora in midfield, and Diego Abreu as the lone forward.

Match Probabilities

The model, which is an in-house estimate and not a betting line, tabs Portland as the clear favorite at 82%, leaving very little room for a draw or an away win. That's also reflected in the expected goals numbers: 2.85 for the home side against just 0.64 for Tijuana, a wide gap that backs up the offensive outlook for Kelsy and company against a rival that still hasn't scored in the tournament. The over 2.5 goals trend sits at 44%, while both teams to score is at just 0%, consistent with the visitors' poor scoring start.

With Portland needing to pick up points at home after an inconsistent start and Tijuana looking to rediscover its scoring touch away from home, Providence Park will serve as a gauge for just how real the gap shown by the numbers actually is.