Portland Timbers look to snap losing skid against favored Charlotte FC

Portland Timbers haven't won in five straight matches. Charlotte FC arrive sitting fifth in the Eastern Conference, and with a perfect head to head record against Portland to boot. The clash at Providence Park, part of MLS play, pits two teams in need of points for very different reasons: one to climb out of the lower half of the table, the other to lock down its spot among the league's top teams.

Portland Timbers, coached by Martí Cifuentes, sit 11th in the Western Conference with a record of 9 wins, 7 draws and 14 losses in 30 matches played, scoring 51 goals and conceding 56. The recent run hasn't helped: over their last five matches they've picked up three losses and two draws, with no wins at all. Charlotte FC, meanwhile, hold fifth place with 13 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses, and a goal difference of 53 scored against 45 allowed. Their recent form isn't overwhelming either, with two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five outings, but it's been enough to keep them close to the top of the table, where Nashville SC leads with 67 points and Charlotte sits just three points behind Chicago Fire FC.

Playing at home in this season's MLS campaign (a sample of 15 matches), Portland Timbers average 2.06 goals scored and 1.66 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 13% of matches, and their most productive stretch falls between the 16th and 30th minutes. Kristoffer Velde stands out as their top offensive threat in that sample with 8 goals, followed by Ariel Lassiter and David da Costa with 5 apiece. Charlotte FC, on the road this season and in this competition (also over 15 matches), average 1.60 goals scored and 1.94 allowed, with the same 13% clean sheet rate and the same high production window between the 16th and 30th minutes. There, Idan Toklomati leads the way with 13 goals, followed by Pep Biel with 12 and Liel Abada with 5.

The only previous meeting between these two clubs clearly favors Charlotte FC: in their lone match to date, the visiting side won 2 to 0.

Probable lineups

For Portland Timbers, the projected lineup (medium reliability, based on recent selections) would have James Pantemis in goal, a back line of Ronald Hernández, Jimer Fory, Joel Waterman and Kamal Miller, Diego Chará and Joao Ortiz holding in midfield, David da Costa and Ariel Lassiter pushed further forward, and Kristoffer Velde alongside Vincent Janssen up top.

Charlotte FC, also in a projected setup, would field Kristijan Kahlina in goal, Henry Kessler, Nathan Byrne, Tim Ream and David Schnegg across the back, Allan Saint-Maximin, Pep Biel, Ashley Westwood, Liel Abada and Djibril Diani in midfield, with Idan Toklomati leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates the following probabilities for this match:

These are tight numbers, with only a slight lean toward the visitors, not enough to call it a clear favorite. The expected goals figures back that up: 1.58 for Portland Timbers and 1.74 for Charlotte FC, a combined total of 3.32 that lines up with the season's trends, where a 77% probability points to over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance that both teams find the net. Worth noting this is our own projection, not a betting line.

With that backdrop, Providence Park should see an open game, the kind that stays undecided until the final whistle. If the trends hold true, there should be no shortage of drama or goals from either side.