Rayo Vallecano chases first LaLiga win against surprise package Alavés

Estadio de Vallecas hosts an early-season matchup between two teams heading in very different directions: Rayo Vallecano is after its first win in LaLiga following a rough start, while Alavés arrives as one of the standout teams from the opening weekend. With just one game played apiece, this clash offers the first real gauge of where both sides stand this season.

How they arrive

Rayo Vallecano opened the campaign with a loss (1-2 on the scoreline) and sits 18th in the table, though it's worth remembering that's after just one match, so the standings don't say much yet. Looking at its last five games (which mix competitions or matches from before this league season), Rayo has two wins, a draw and two losses, with Álvaro García as its top scoring threat. Its most productive scoring window has come early in the first half, between minutes 0 and 15, though it has yet to keep a clean sheet in its recent run.

Alavés, on the other hand, opened with a statement: a 3-0 win in its first match of the tournament, with goals from Mikel Rodríguez, Mariano Díaz and Nahuel Tenaglia, and a clean sheet to boot. That result has the club sitting second in the table, just three points behind Rayo when the two are compared. Over its last five matches, Alavés has three wins, a draw and a loss, and its best scoring stretch has come late, between minutes 76 and 90.

Head to head

Recent history clearly favors the Madrid side on home turf: of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, Rayo Vallecano has won 5, Alavés has won 3, and there have been no draws. In terms of goals, Rayo has scored 8 and Alavés 5, a gap that backs up Rayo's historical edge in this fixture, though it doesn't necessarily reflect where either squad stands today.

Possible lineups

For Rayo Vallecano, the projected lineup (estimated with low confidence based on recent matches) points to Augusto Batalla in goal, a back line of Florian Lejeune, Andrei Ratiu, Pathé Ciss, Pep Chavarría and Iván Balliu, a midfield of Óscar Valentín, Unai López, Jorge de Frutos and Álvaro García, with Randy Nteka leading the attack.

Alavés, with a medium confidence projection, could field Antonio Sivera between the posts, a defense made up of Nahuel Tenaglia, Víctor Parada and Ville Koski, a crowded midfield with Ángel Pérez, Abde Rebbach, Antonio Blanco, Denis Suárez, Pablo Ibáñez and Jon Guridi, and Toni Martínez up top as the center forward.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' in-house model gives Rayo Vallecano a slight edge as the home side, with a 42% probability compared to 31% for Alavés and 27% for a draw. Those are fairly even numbers that don't point to a clear favorite. Along the same lines, the expected goals estimate has Rayo at 1.65 and Alavés at 1.42, for a combined total of 3.07 goals, figures that represent an in-house statistical projection rather than a firm prediction or a betting line.

With Rayo Vallecano in need of its first points at home and Alavés looking to build on its strong start, Vallecas is set for an evenly matched contest, one where the two sides' recent head to head history adds an extra layer of intrigue.