Real Madrid Could Climb to Second in the Champions League With a Win in Athens and Slip-Ups From Liverpool and Betis

It's the kind of math every fan loves: win your own game and hope the teams above you slip up. That's exactly the situation facing Real Madrid this Wednesday against AEK Athens, a match that looks routine on paper but could end up being worth a significant climb in the Champions League table.

The math is simple: if Madrid wins in Athens, the club reaches 12 points and moves into second place in the league phase, behind only PSG. Not bad for a midweek fixture that, on paper, looked a lot quieter than it's turning out to be.

At the very top, the Paris side is ruling with an iron fist. PSG thrashed Villarreal 6-0 and sits at the summit with four wins in four matches, 20 goals scored and a goal difference of plus 15 that, for now, nobody can touch. Even a Madrid win wouldn't take first place away from them: if both clubs finish on 12 points, goal difference decides it, and the French side stays on top.

Barcelona also had a perfect night, beating Aston Villa 3-0. The English club had won its first three matches but ran into its first setback. Both teams sit on nine points, though Barça's goal difference of plus 8 edges out Villa's plus 6.

The Help Madrid Needs

That's where the second part of the plan comes in. For the jump in the standings to actually happen, Madrid can't just win: the club also needs Liverpool, visiting Fenerbahce, and Real Betis, playing at Borussia Dortmund, to lose. Both arrive with perfect records, and if they stumble, they'd be stuck on nine points, with no chance of catching either PSG or Madrid this round.

One team is already out of that nine-point race from a different position: Sporting Lisbon, which wrapped up its match on Tuesday with a 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk, locking in nine points no matter what happens for the rest of the week.

So the scenario is drawn pretty clearly: Madrid wins in Athens, Liverpool and Betis lose their matches, and by the end of the round only PSG and the Spanish side would sit on 12 points, though the top spot would still belong to the Parisians on goal difference. It's a combination that doesn't rest solely on Mourinho's team, but it absolutely starts with a win over AEK.