Red Bulls and San Diego Clash in MLS, Both Looking to Snap Rough Patches

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a matchup between two teams not having the season they hoped for. New York Red Bulls, eighth in the East, and San Diego, twelfth, meet in MLS with the urgency of sides that need points to avoid losing more ground in the standings.

The home side comes in with a record of 9 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in 27 matches played, with 34 goals scored and 51 allowed, a gap that weighs on them and leaves them with 33 points. Over their last five matches, the Red Bulls have put together two wins, a draw and two losses, an uneven stretch that includes a win, a loss, back to back victories and a more recent defeat. At home in MLS this season, across a sample of 13 matches, they're averaging 1.392 goals scored and 1.994 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 8 percent of those matches, and their strongest offensive stretch falls between the 46th and 60th minutes.

San Diego isn't faring any better when it comes to recent results: the club arrives winless in its last five matches, with three straight losses followed by two draws to close out that run. In the league overall, San Diego has 8 wins, 8 draws and 11 losses in 27 matches, with 47 goals scored and 47 allowed, a more balanced record than its rival's but one that hasn't been enough to climb into the upper half of the table. On the road in MLS this season, across 13 matches, San Diego averages 1.163 goals scored and 1.765 allowed, with clean sheets in 15 percent of games, and tends to look most dangerous between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Probable Lineups

For the home side, the projected lineup, an estimate based on recent matches, would have Ethan Horvath in goal, a back line of Julian Bazan, Dylan Nealis, Matthew Dos Santos and Tim Parker, a midfield of Mohammed Sofo, Adri Mehmeti and Ronald Donkor, and up top Cade Cowell, Jorge Ruvalcaba and Julian Hall, the latter the Red Bulls' top scorer at home with 10 goals in that sample, followed by Ruvalcaba with 7 and Emil Forsberg with 3.

San Diego, also with a projected lineup, would line up with CJ Dos Santos in goal, Manu Duah and Ian Murphy in defense, a crowded midfield featuring Anibal Godoy, Oscar Verhoeven, Kieran Sargeant, Jeppe Tverskov, Onni Valakari and Gabriel Pirani, and Anders Dreyer alongside Elias Achouri up front. Dreyer and Marcus Ingvartsen stand out as road performers, with 11 and 12 goals respectively in that sample, while Valakari has added 4.

What the Numbers Say

Our model projects a tight matchup, with a slight lean toward the visitors.

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: San Diego's 39% is only slightly ahead of the Red Bulls' 35%, and the 26% chance of a draw leaves the door open to any result. It's worth clarifying this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. The broader trends back up that reading of an open game: a 50 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 43 percent chance both teams find the net.

With the Red Bulls needing to cut down on their inconsistency at home and San Diego looking to snap a three-game winless run, the clash at Sports Illustrated Stadium shapes up as one of those matches that could be decided by small details rather than by pedigree.