Czechia host favored Croatia in wide-open Nations League clash

Two draws in two prior meetings, a 3-3 aggregate scoreline, and now a matchup that could set the tone for the group: Czechia host Croatia at Fortuna Arena in the UEFA Nations League. There's no room to relax here, since neither side arrives with much certainty behind it.

The Czechs, coached by Santi Denia, have been up and down over their last five matches: two wins, a draw and two losses. That inconsistency reflects a team still searching for continuity. Croatia, under Slaven Bilic, come in with a slightly steadier recent record: three wins and two losses in their last five outings, though not without their own rough patches.

It's worth separating that recent form from another sample that has nothing to do with this tournament: at the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away, Czechia averaged just 0.67 goals scored per game and conceded 2 on average across three matches, without a single clean sheet. Croatia, over four matches in that same competition, averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, with a 25% clean sheet rate. That data comes from a different context, but it helps frame where each national team stands right now beyond this particular fixture.

What the history says

The two previous meetings between these sides both ended in draws, with a perfectly symmetrical goal split: 3 apiece on aggregate. There's no clear upper hand in this rivalry, and the recent history between them suggests another tight contest on the field.

Possible lineups

For Czechia, the likely lineup (with low reliability, according to our estimate) would have Matej Kovár in goal, a back line of Ladislav Krejcí, Robin Hranác and Stepán Chaloupek, and up front Adam Hlozek, Pavel Sulc and Patrik Schick, with Vladimír Coufal, Michal Sadílek, Lukás Cerv and Alexandr Sojka in midfield.

Croatia, with a medium reliability estimate, would go with Dominik Livakovic between the posts, a back line of Ivan Perisic, Josip Stanisic, Josip Sutalo, Marin Pongracic and Josko Gvardiol, a midfield of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic, and Ante Budimir leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model sees Croatia as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin over the Czechs:

The draw and the home win sit almost neck and neck, 24% versus 26%, which confirms the match isn't as settled as Croatia's 50% might suggest. The expected goals figures back that up: 1.19 for Czechia and 1.77 for Croatia, for an estimated total of 2.95 goals. Add to that the broader trends for the game: a 71% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams score. These are our own projections, not betting odds, but they point to an open match with scoring chances at both ends.

With a head-to-head record that plays no favorites and two rosters packed with big names up top and through the middle, Fortuna Arena has all the ingredients for a back and forth affair. The Nations League will test whether Czechia can shake off their inconsistency or whether Croatia confirms the slight edge the model gives them.