Rosario Central looks to extend its stranglehold on Newell's in a tight Rosario derby

Rosario Central and Newell's Old Boys are playing for a lot more than three points this Sunday at the Gigante de Arroyito: it's the Rosario derby, and neither side is riding much of a hot streak coming in. Argentina's Primera División hands out the same starting point to both, but recent history hangs over one of these teams like a heavy weight.

Rosario Central has posted 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 7 matches this tournament, scoring 8 goals and conceding 7. Over its last five outings, the scale hasn't tipped much in its favor either: just one win, two draws and two losses. Newell's, meanwhile, sits on the same points tally in the tournament (3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded), but arrives in slightly better form, with two wins, two draws and one loss in its last five. In the Group A standings, Newell's sits fifth with 11 points; Rosario Central doesn't appear among the positions listed for this matchup.

Some numbers here are worth reading carefully, without mixing samples. Playing at home in the 2026 Argentine Primera División (a sample of 8 matches), Rosario Central averages 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and tends to do its damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. On the other side, Newell's as a visitor in that same season and competition (also 8 matches) faces a tougher picture: 1.12 goals scored per game, but 2.12 conceded, with zero clean sheets, and its most productive stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

A history that weighs heavily

The head-to-head record between these two is emphatic: of the last 8 meetings, Rosario Central won all 8, with a combined goal difference of 12 to 2. That kind of history doesn't play the match by itself, but it explains much of the favorite status Rosario Central carries into this derby.

The probable lineups

On the home side, the projected starting eleven (estimated from recent matches) would have Jeremías Ledesma in goal, a back line of Ignacio Ovando, Gastón Ávila, Emanuel Coronel and Agustín Sández, a midfield of Franco Ibarra, Vicente Pizarro, Giovanni Cantizano and Jáminton Campaz, with Ángel Di María pushed further forward, and Enzo Copetti as the target man up top. Di María, Copetti and Alejo Veliz actually share the top of the home scoring charts in that home sample with 4 goals apiece.

Newell's, for its part, would send out Josué Reinatti between the posts, a back line of Lautaro Giannetti, Franco Escobar, Bruno Cabrera, Martín Ortega and Jeronimo Russo, a midfield of Facundo Guch, Luca Regiardo, Walter Mazzantti and Thomas Rios, with Ignacio Ramírez leading the line. Ramírez tops the visiting team's scoring chart in its sample with 4 goals.

What the numbers say

Our model has Rosario Central as the clear favorite, though it doesn't rule out the other outcomes:

That 60% for Rosario Central marks it as a clear favorite, though the 27% draw probability leaves the door open for the derby to turn into a stalemate. These figures come from our own model, not a bookmaker's odds. On top of that, a 56% probability points toward the match going over 2.5 goals, and a 47% chance has both teams scoring, so a dull 0-0 doesn't look like the most likely script.

With history's weight bearing down on one side and both teams showing similarly uneven recent form, the Gigante de Arroyito promises a derby with everything on the line, starting with the pride of ending, or extending, a streak that so far has only one outcome.