San Jose Earthquakes host league-leading Nashville SC, owners of MLS's best defense

The San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC at PayPal Park, with Nashville sitting as the undisputed leader of MLS, in a matchup that pits two teams on very different runs against each other. Nashville comes in as the top team in the standings with 66 points; San Jose, fourth in the Western Conference, is fighting to lock down a strong stretch of its season. The gap in the table is clear, but the field doesn't always respect what's on paper.

The Earthquakes arrive with a record of 13 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in 29 matches played, with 51 goals scored and 41 allowed. They haven't lost in their last five outings, with two wins and three draws, a run that points to solidity but also to a certain lack of punch when it comes to closing out games. At home this MLS season, San Jose averages 1.781 goals scored and 1.574 allowed per game, with a 29 percent clean sheet rate, and tends to find the net most often between the 76th and 90th minutes. Preston Judd is the club's top offensive threat in that sample with 15 goals, followed by Ousseni Bouda and Timo Werner with 6 apiece.

Nashville, meanwhile, comes in red hot: 20 wins, 6 draws and just 3 losses in 29 matches, with 63 goals scored and only 22 allowed, the best goal differential in the league. Over their last five games they've racked up four wins and a draw, with no losses. On the road this MLS season, Nashville averages 1.284 goals scored and just 0.704 allowed per game, with a sharp 50 percent clean sheet rate, and also tends to score more between the 76th and 90th minutes. Sam Surridge (17 goals) and Hany Mukhtar (15) lead that offensive output in their away-game sample.

An even series so far

The head-to-head history between the two clubs offers no edge either way: in the four meetings on record, there have been four draws, with no wins for either side and an exact 4-4 goal split overall. A curious stat for a matchup where today's odds point to a clear gap.

Projected lineups

Bruce Arena could go with a lineup featuring Angus Gunn in goal, a back line of Dave Romney, Daniel Munie, Reid Roberts, Paul Marie and Jamar Ricketts, a midfield of Beau Leroux, Eduard Löwen and Ian Harkes, and Preston Judd paired with Ousseni Bouda up top. This lineup is an estimate drawn from recent matches, and our data flags it as low confidence.

On Nashville's side, B.J. Callaghan could turn to Brian Schwake in goal, a back line of Reed Baker-Whiting, Maxwell Woledzi, Jeisson Palacios and Andy Nájar, a five-man midfield of Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza, Matthew Corcoran, Elias Saad and Edvard Tagseth, and Sam Surridge as the lone forward. In this case the projection carries high confidence, given the team's recent lineup continuity.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Nashville a clear, though not overwhelming, edge, factoring in the gap between the two teams in the standings:

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in forecast. Expected goals also back the slight edge for the visitors: 1.09 for San Jose against 1.72 for Nashville, for a combined total of 2.81. On top of that, our model puts the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals at 54 percent and the odds of both teams scoring at 55 percent, signs of a game that could see plenty of action on the scoreboard.

With a home side unbeaten in five and a visitor arriving as league leader with the best defense in MLS, PayPal Park has all the makings of a matchup that looks even on paper, though MLS has already shown this season that favorite tags don't always hold up once the whistle blows.