San Jose Earthquakes salvage late draw against LAFC despite playing a man down

Reid Roberts struck from outside the box in the 97th minute to make it 2-2, earning San Jose Earthquakes a point against Los Angeles Football Club at Levi's Stadium. It was the final blow in a night where the home side dominated possession for most of the match, played more than an hour with a man advantage, and still had to fight until stoppage time just to avoid defeat.

The MLS match opened with a blow that seemed to settle things early for the visitors. Son Heung-Min struck a left-footed shot from outside the box in the 33rd minute, assisted by Mark Delgado, for the 0-1. Two minutes later, Aaron Long was sent off with a red card for Los Angeles Football Club, and the match shifted entirely: San Jose Earthquakes trailed on the scoreboard but now had a man advantage on the field.

Rather than capitalizing right away on the extra man, it was Los Angeles Football Club who struck first in the second half. In the 52nd minute, Denis Bouanga finished with his right foot from the center of the box on a counterattack, assisted by Son Heung-Min, making it 0-2. Down a man and two goals, San Jose Earthquakes began piling up chances one after another: shots from Eduard Löwen, Ronaldo Vieira, and Preston Judd came in quick succession before Judd finally converted, heading home a cross from Timo Werner in the 69th minute to pull one back, 1-2. The equalizer didn't come until deep into second-half stoppage time, in the 97th minute, when Reid Roberts finished off a pass from Beau Leroux.

The numbers behind a persistence that paid off

San Jose Earthquakes' dominance on the field showed up clearly in the stats, which makes sense given they played more than 60 minutes with an extra player.

San Jose Earthquakes fired off 21 shots to their opponent's mere 3, and that gap shows up in the post-match expected goals as well: 1.068 for the home side compared to 0.553 for the visitors. Those numbers back up what played out on the field, a team that pushed forward all match, though they weren't enough to account for two goals conceded or to change the final result.

Our preview gave San Jose Earthquakes a 29% chance of winning, 27% for a draw, and 44% in favor of Los Angeles Football Club, with expected goals of 1.29 for the home side and 1.63 for the visitors. A draw did end up being the outcome, but the path to get there, an early red card, a two-goal deficit, and a partial comeback deep into stoppage time, looked nothing like what those numbers had projected.

What the result means in the standings

In the Western Conference, San Jose Earthquakes now sit on 42 points from 26 matches played, with 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, good for fifth place. Los Angeles Football Club have 41 points from 27 matches, with 11 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, sitting sixth. The gap between the two clubs in the standings is just 1 point, something this draw doesn't change in any meaningful way.

In the end, San Jose Earthquakes can take some solace in having clawed back half a two-goal deficit while playing a man down, while Los Angeles Football Club watched a two-goal lead slip away in the match's dying moments, with Long's red card weighing more heavily as the minutes ticked by.