San Jose Earthquakes Rout Portland Timbers 3-1 Behind Blistering Start From Judd and Löwen

The cameras at PayPal Park had barely settled into position before San Jose Earthquakes were already celebrating. In the 3rd minute, Preston Judd headed home a cross from Eduard Löwen, and the goal was confirmed after a VAR review. It was the first sign of a night that finished 3-1 in favor of the home side, with Portland Timbers chasing the game almost from the opening whistle.

The blow landed twice more before the half-hour mark. In the 23rd minute, Löwen himself doubled the lead with an angled shot from the left that found its way through the middle of the goal, set up by Beau Leroux. Five minutes later, Judd completed his brace, a right-footed strike from the center of the box that again found the top corner, this time off a pass from Paul Marie. Just 28 minutes in, San Jose already led 3-0 and Portland needed a complete reset. Judd, in fact, picked up a yellow card for overdoing his celebration of the second goal.

The visitors answered with plenty of volume but little precision. Ariel Lassiter, Kristoffer Velde and Vincent Janssen all tested their luck in the first 20 minutes without troubling the frame of the goal, and the match went into the break with the scoreline already decided, or so it seemed. Portland kept creating chances after halftime: Eric Miller headed one narrowly wide from close range, Cole Bassett and Velde both tried their luck from distance, until in the 85th minute David da Costa pulled one back with a low strike from the center of the box, assisted by Eric Izoita, who had come on as a substitute just minutes earlier. The goal added a bit of respectability to the scoreline, but there were no further scares: the match ended 3-1.

What the numbers say

The stats tell a different story than the scoreline: Portland controlled possession and produced more shots, but San Jose was clinical in front of goal.

The xG figure generated during the match (an in-house estimate calculated from the shots taken) stands out: 1.198 for San Jose against 1.199 for Portland, essentially even. The takeaway is clear: San Jose didn't need to control the ball or out-shoot its rival to get the result, it simply finished its chances better.

Before kickoff, the preview gave San Jose a 46% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 30% for Portland, with a total expected goals count of 3.70 (2.05 for the home side and 1.65 for the visitors). The final result, with three goals for San Jose and one for Portland, lined up closely with that projection both in terms of the winner and the goal split.

What it means for the standings

In the Western Conference, San Jose Earthquakes came into this match in third place with 45 points, the product of 13 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in 27 games played. Portland Timbers, meanwhile, sat in tenth place with 32 points, after 9 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in 27 matches. The gap between the two clubs before this game stood at 13 points, and tonight's rout only underscores the distance separating them so far this season.

For San Jose, the afternoon was decided in a devastating opening quarter-hour, with Judd and Löwen as the undisputed stars. For Portland, da Costa's goal did little more than dress up a scoreline that, based on the match's own underlying numbers, could have been a good deal tighter than the final result suggested.