San Lorenzo stuns Estudiantes with Gulli strike in the 94th minute

Estudiantes de La Plata had the game in hand for nearly the entire second half, but San Lorenzo found a way back at the worst possible moment for the home side: a strike from Facundo Gulli in the 94th minute gave the visitors a 2-1 win at Jorge Luis Hirschi stadium in the Argentina Primera Division.

The match opened with San Lorenzo testing the waters early through Rodrigo Auzmendi and Facundo Gulli, but it was Estudiantes that landed the first blow. In the 8th minute, the VAR checked a foul by Ezequiel Herrera on Tomas Palacios inside the box, and the call came in the 9th minute: penalty for the home team. Edwuin Cetre made no mistake from the spot in the 13th, sending a low right-footed shot just inside the left post for the 1-0.

San Lorenzo did not fold and, late in the first half, pulled level from a set piece. In the 43rd minute, off a free kick taken by Agustin Ladstatter, Guzman Corujo rose at the center of the box to head home the 1-1, the score at halftime.

In the second half, Estudiantes pushed for a second goal, bringing on Tiago Palacios, Baltasar Rodriguez, Guido Carrillo and Adolfo Gaich, who created several chances without finding the target: off-target shots from Edwuin Cetre, Tiago Palacios and Guido Carrillo kept coming as the clock ran down. But the match slipped away from Estudiantes just as a draw seemed to be the likely outcome. In stoppage time, in the 94th minute, Facundo Gulli curled a left-footed shot from the right side of the box into the top corner, assisted by Alan Salas, to make it a final 1-2.

What the numbers say

Estudiantes controlled possession and territory, but lacked precision where it mattered most. San Lorenzo, with less of the ball, was far more efficient in front of goal.

The gap between shots and shots on target tells much of the story: Estudiantes fired 11 attempts but only two tested the goalkeeper, while San Lorenzo turned six of its 13 attempts into shots on frame. In our own xG estimate based on the shots taken in the match, San Lorenzo finished ahead, with 1.413 against Estudiantes' 1.123, a reflection of the fact that the visitors created the more dangerous chances, including the game's single best opportunity, which was theirs.

The result also runs counter to our pre-match projections: the preview gave Estudiantes a 47% chance of winning, against 17% for San Lorenzo and 36% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.10 for the home side and 0.55 for the visitors. Alexander Medina's side spent much of the game in front and had the run of play, but it was Ruben Insua's San Lorenzo that walked away with all three points.

What it means in the standings

In Group A, Estudiantes de La Plata sit in 10th place with 14 points from 13 matches played (4 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses), while San Lorenzo climbed to ninth with 17 points from the same number of matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses). Only 3 points now separate the two clubs, and this result pulls them even closer together in the table, in a part of the standings where neither side can afford to give away points the way the home team did today in the final minute.