Santos Laguna Look to Extend Hot Streak as Struggling Necaxa Seek a Lifeline

Santos Laguna had strung together four wins in five games before their most recent stumble, and that momentum is exactly what they need to pull away from the uncomfortable part of the table. The stage is Estadio Corona, in Liga MX action, and across the field stands a Necaxa side that hasn't won in a while and badly needs answers.

The numbers from this tournament tell two very different stories. Santos Laguna sit 11th with 19 points, built on 6 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in 14 matches, with 20 goals scored and 20 allowed. Necaxa, meanwhile, are second to last with 10 points: just 2 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, and a goal difference of minus 11 (16 scored against 27 allowed). The gap between the two sides stands at 9 points in the standings.

Recent form makes the contrast even sharper. Santos Laguna reeled off four straight wins before falling in their last outing, while Necaxa hasn't tasted victory in its last five matches, with three losses and two draws in that stretch.

Looking at Santos Laguna's home form in this season's Liga MX, across a sample of 7 matches, Renato Paiva's side averages 1.42 goals scored and just 0.42 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 57% of matches and a tendency to score between the 76th and 90th minutes. Tahiel Jimenez stands out as the top offensive threat in that sample with 5 goals, followed by Ezequiel Bullaude and Eduardo Aguirre with 3 apiece.

On the other side, Necaxa carries rough numbers on the road: across 6 away matches this Liga MX season, the team averages 1.17 goals scored against 2.01 allowed, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score early, within the first 15 minutes. Julian Carranza is by far their top scoring threat in that sample, with 7 goals.

What the History Says

The head-to-head between these two has been lopsided: in 8 previous meetings, Necaxa has won 5, Santos Laguna has won 2 and there's been 1 draw, with a combined scoreline of 20 goals for the visitors against 12 for the home side.

Probable Lineups

For Santos Laguna, with medium reliability, the projected starting eleven has Carlos Acevedo in goal; a back line of Felipe Sanchez, Mauricio Cuevas, Franco Pardo, Diego Gonzalez and Efrain Orona; Ezequiel Bullaude, Facundo Caseres and Fran Villalba in midfield; and Esteban Lozano alongside Tahiel Jimenez up top.

Necaxa, in a projected lineup of low reliability, could field Javier Orantes in goal; Agustin Oliveros, Carlos Vargas, Kaiky Naves and Diego Ochoa on defense; Owen Gonzalez, Matias Espindola, Danny Leyva, Emilio Rodriguez and Pedro Pedraza in midfield; and Julian Carranza as the lone forward.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Santos Laguna a slight edge for playing at home and riding their current form, though it stops short of making them an overwhelming favorite.

Expected goals (xG estimated by our model) also point to a close scoreline: 1.73 for Santos Laguna against 1.40 for Necaxa, for a combined total of 3.13. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 39%, while both teams scoring is projected at 48%, a sign the model doesn't rule out chances at both ends. These percentages are our own estimate and not a betting line.

With Santos Laguna emboldened by their recent run and Necaxa desperate to break their poor road form, the clash at Estadio Corona promises a bit of everything: goals, urgency and a scoreline that, based on the projections, shouldn't end up far from even.