Sarmiento routs Huracán 2-0 at the Eva Perón despite a third of the possession

Sarmiento beat Huracán 2-0 at Estadio Eva Perón in a Primera División de Argentina clash that the home side settled despite holding just a third of the possession. Goals from Junior Marabel and Lucas Suárez, combined with a red card for Huracán's Jordy Caicedo, ended up tilting a match that also featured a VAR-disallowed goal late in the first half.

A first half with more chances than goals

The match kicked off evenly, with Huracán controlling the ball and creating the first half-chances through Leandro Lescano and Óscar Romero, though without causing too much alarm. Sarmiento, more direct in its approach, broke through in the 29th minute: after a Julián Mavilla shot came off the post, Junior Marabel pounced on the rebound and finished from close range to make it 1-0.

The home side could have extended the lead before the break, but in the 38th minute referee Hernán Mastrángelo, after a VAR review, ruled out a goal from Elián Giménez. The decision slowed Sarmiento's momentum, and the hosts went into the break with a slim but deserved edge in scoring chances.

The red card that changed the game

In the second half, Huracán tried to respond by leaning on its greater share of possession, with attempts from Ignacio Pussetto and Máximo Palazzo that failed to find the target. The match took a decisive turn in the 65th minute, though, when Jordy Caicedo was sent off for fighting, leaving his side down to ten men for the final 25 minutes.

With the extra man, Sarmiento sealed the result in the 85th minute: from a corner, Gastón González crossed into the box and Lucas Suárez, who had already rattled the crossbar with a shot minutes earlier, headed home to make it a final 2-0.

The numbers behind the match

The stats tell a striking story: Huracán dominated possession and passing by a wide margin, but it was Sarmiento that created the clearer chances and walked away with all three points.

That gap between possession and effectiveness also shows up in the match's estimated xG, calculated afterward based on shot locations: 1.954 for Sarmiento against just 0.35 for Huracán, a figure that backs up the home side's offensive edge despite seeing less of the ball.

What the preview said versus what happened on the field

Before kickoff, our projection gave Sarmiento a 34% chance of winning, 38% for a draw and 28% for a Huracán victory, with expected goals of 0.87 for the home side and 0.76 for Huracán. The final result went beyond that forecast: Sarmiento didn't just win, it did so with authority in both boxes, helped by the opponent's red card and an efficiency in front of goal that far exceeded what was expected beforehand.

What the result means

With this win, Sarmiento moves to 9 points and jumps into the fight for the top of Group B, while Huracán stays on 7. The gap of just 2 points between the two sides before this match underscores how tight the table is, though it's worth remembering this is a group standing rather than a traditional league table. For Sarmiento, the result snaps a recent rough patch; for Huracán, Caicedo's red card ended up being the deciding factor in a match it had controlled with the ball but not with the scoreline.