Scotland rout North Macedonia on the road as Bowie and McGinn penalty seal the win

Barely six minutes had gone by at the Tose Proeski Arena when Kieron Bowie fired a left-footed effort from outside the box that crept in off the right side of the North Macedonia goal. Billy Gilmour supplied the assist, and Scotland were already up 0-1. The score held until the second half, when John McGinn converted a penalty in the 68th minute to make it a final 0-2 over North Macedonia.

The match, part of UEFA Nations League Group B1, left little doubt: Scotland controlled the game from start to finish, even though the hosts managed to cause the odd scare. Bowie's early goal set the tone for the first 45 minutes, with the visitors repeatedly working the ball down the flanks against a North Macedonia side that could only threaten sporadically on the counter through Bojan Miovski and Bojan Ilievski.

The second goal and the VAR review

At the start of the second half, the referee checked a possible penalty for Scotland in the 50th minute, and VAR ruled there was no foul. But the story changed twelve minutes later: Scott McKenna headed off the right post from a John McGinn corner, and on the ensuing play VAR did award a penalty for a handball by Bojan Miovski inside the box, which also earned him a yellow card. McGinn made no mistake from the spot in the 68th minute, slotting a left-footed shot into the right side of the net to make it 0-2, a scoreline that would not change again.

The closing stretch brought an extra wrinkle for Scotland: Scott McKenna was sent off in the 82nd minute, forcing the visitors to see out the match with ten men. Even so, North Macedonia couldn't generate any real danger despite late attempts from Jani Atanasov and Hristijan Maleski, both of which went wide or over the bar.

The numbers behind the dominance

Possession favored North Macedonia, but that proved a misleading stat given the real gap in scoring chances. Scotland shot far more often and with far greater precision, as the table shows:

That gap of 25 shots to 9 also shows up in the xG figures we calculate afterward based on shot locations: 4.119 for Scotland against just 0.494 for North Macedonia, an estimate confirming that 0-2 may have undersold just how much the Scots created.

Our preview published before the match gave Scotland a 57% chance of winning, with 9% for North Macedonia and 34% for a draw, projecting expected goals of 1.19 for the visitors and 0.33 for the hosts. The result ended up matching that lean toward a Scottish win, though the final margin and the gap in shots were considerably more lopsided than those numbers suggested.

Where it leaves the group standings

In Group B1, Scotland now sit on 4 points from 3 matches played (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), sitting 4 points clear of North Macedonia in the table, who still haven't picked up a win: 0 points from 3 matches, with 3 losses. Switzerland lead the group with a perfect record, while Slovenia share Scotland's 4 points. For North Macedonia, the 0-2 defeat confirms a tough start to this Nations League campaign; for Scotland, it's a win that backs up what they showed on the field, dominating nearly every aspect of the match except, oddly enough, possession of the ball.