Seattle Sounders and New York Red Bulls Look to Snap Losing Skids in MLS Clash

Three losses and two draws in their last five matches, that's how Seattle Sounders FC arrives at a game that looks routine on paper but one neither side wants to keep dropping points in. At Lumen Field, the Sounders host the New York Red Bulls in an MLS clash where both teams are looking to snap a rough patch before the season slips away from them.

The hosts sit 12th in the East with a record of 7 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in 21 matches played, scoring 24 goals and conceding 29. Their immediate form is worrying: no wins in the last five matches, with three losses and two draws closing out that stretch. At home this MLS season, though, they're averaging 1.596 goals scored and 1.806 conceded per game across a sample of 10 matches, with clean sheets in just 10% of games and a tendency to score between the 76th and 90th minutes. Paul Rothrock stands out as the club's top scorer in that sample with 5 goals, followed by Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnak with 3 apiece.

The Red Bulls come in eighth, with 26 points from 22 matches played (7 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses), a negative goal difference of -14 that reflects a defense that's taken its lumps: 32 goals scored against 46 conceded. Their recent form isn't much better: one win, one draw and three losses in the last five. On the road this MLS season, they're averaging 1.408 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game across 10 matches, without a single clean sheet, and they tend to score early, within the first 15 minutes. Julian Hall leads that sample with 9 goals, and Jorge Ruvalcaba has added 7.

What the History Books Say

The two clubs have met 8 times previously, with the Sounders holding the edge: 4 wins to 3 for the Red Bulls and one draw. The goal split, however, is perfectly even at 13 apiece.

Projected Lineups

For the Sounders, the projected XI has Andrew Thomas in goal, a back line of Kalani Kossa-Rienzi, Nouhou Tolo, Stuart Hawkins and Antino Lopez, and a crowded midfield featuring Sebastian Gomez, Paul Rothrock, Albert Rusnak, Alex Roldan, Peter Kingston and Snyder Brunell. Confidence in this lineup is low, so it's best treated as an approximation.

On the visitors' side, the picture is clearer: Ethan Horvath in goal, a defensive line of Julian Bazan, Matthew Dos Santos, Justin Che and Dylan Nealis, and a midfield and attacking group featuring Emil Forsberg, Ronald Donkor, Cade Cowell, Adri Mehmeti and Jorge Ruvalcaba, with Julian Hall leading the line.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives the Sounders a 55% chance of winning, against 21% for the Red Bulls and 24% for a draw. It's a clear edge for the home side, though not overwhelming: the visitors and the draw combine for more than 40%. Expected goals also point to a match with chances for both sides: 1.99 for Seattle and 1.19 for New York, for a total of 3.18. Worth noting, this is our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

The broader match trends also point to an open contest: a 70% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 72% chance both teams find the net. With two defenses that have struggled and two attacks in need of points, Lumen Field could be the stage for a back and forth affair rather than a tactical lockdown.