Sevilla host Alavés at the Sánchez-Pizjuán with history favoring the visitors

The Sánchez-Pizjuán hosts a matchup between two teams arriving in fairly similar shape: 17 points for Sevilla, 12 for Alavés, though both have played 11 games. The hosts sit sixth and the visitors eleventh, separated by just 5 points in the LaLiga table, so there's less of a gap than the standings suggest.

Sevilla come into the game with a record of 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the league, with 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven stretch that includes an opening draw, a loss, back-to-back wins and a more recent defeat. At home in LaLiga this season, across a sample of 5 matches, Luis García's side averages 1.408 goals scored and 1.408 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 40% of those matches and a tendency to score between the 76th and 90th minutes. Isaac Romero leads that sample with 3 goals, followed by Félix Correia and Miguel Sierra with 2 apiece.

Alavés, for their part, have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in the league, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Their current form is rougher: they haven't won any of their last five matches, with two draws and three losses. On the road in LaLiga this season, across 5 matches, Quique Sánchez Flores' team has scored just 0.792 goals per game while conceding 2.2, with clean sheets in only 20% of those outings, though they too tend to find the net late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Lucas Boyé, with 5 goals, and Mariano Díaz, with 4, are their top scorers in that sample.

What the head-to-head record says

The two sides have met 8 times, with the edge going to Alavés: 4 wins to Sevilla's 2, plus 2 draws. In goals, the Basque club also leads, 13 to 11, a reminder that this fixture hasn't always favored the home side despite being played at Nervión.

Possible lineups

For Sevilla, the likely XI, projected from recent matches, would have Odysseas Vlachodimos in goal, a back line with Andrés Castrín, Gabriel Suazo, Juan Iglesias and Kike Salas, a midfield of Lucien Agoumé, Félix Correia, Youssouf Fofana and Giorgi Kochorashvili, and Chidera Ejuke and Robbie Ure up top. Confidence in this lineup is medium.

Alavés, also with a medium-confidence projected lineup, would go with Antonio Sivera in net, a back line of Nahuel Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, Ville Koski and Nicolás Valentini, a midfield of Abde Rebbach, Pablo Ibáñez, Ángel Pérez and Antonio Blanco, and Lucas Boyé as the lone forward.

What the numbers say

EnPelotas' proprietary model sees this one as close, with a slight lean toward the home side:

Sevilla's 40% against Alavés' 31%, with a 29% chance of a draw, points to a match without a clear favorite, just a slight tilt toward the hosts. Expected goals, a proprietary estimate that adds up to 2.69 combined, tell a similar story: a moderate total, neither high nor low. The model also calculates a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals and an 80% chance both teams will score, signs of a game that could go back and forth. It's worth noting these figures are an in-house projection and not betting odds.

With Sevilla looking to iron out their recent inconsistency at home and an Alavés side winless in several matches needing to snap that streak on the road, the Sánchez-Pizjuán promises an even contest, the kind that can be decided in the final minutes.