Sevilla and Atlético Madrid, unbeaten rivals chasing top spot at the Pizjuán

Two unbeaten sides meet at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Sevilla arrives in third place with a perfect record in LaLiga, while Atlético Madrid sits seventh but has also yet to taste defeat in the league. With just two points separating the two clubs in the standings, this matchup looks like a real test for both squads.

Sevilla has racked up two wins in two matches, scoring five goals and conceding just two. The club averages 2.5 goals scored per game and gives up one on average, though it has yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Over its last five matches, Sevilla has posted three wins and two losses, a mixed record that points to a team capable of causing damage up front but also vulnerable at the back. Its most productive stretch comes between the 46th and 60th minutes, with goals spread among several players: Jon Guridi, Chidera Ejuke and Oso have each scored once.

Atlético, for its part, has one fewer win on its LaLiga ledger: one victory and one draw in two outings, with four goals scored and two allowed. Its defense looks sturdier, having kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches, and it tends to find the net late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Over its last five matches, a larger sample than its league record alone, Atlético has two wins, one draw and two losses. Lee Kang-In, Álex Baena and Giuliano Simeone have been the club's scorers so far this season.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Atlético

The history between these two clubs leaves little room for doubt: in eight meetings, Atlético Madrid has won five, Sevilla two, with one draw. In terms of goals, the Colchoneros also come out on top with 13 compared to Sevilla's 8.

Probable lineups

Marked as low confidence since it's an estimate drawn from recent matches, Sevilla could take the field with Odysseas Vlachodimos in goal, a back line of Gabriel Suazo, Kike Salas, José Ángel Carmona and Andrés Castrín, a midfield of Lucien Agoumé, Oso, Djibril Sow and Rubén Vargas, and Isaac Romero alongside Neal Maupay up top.

Atlético, with the same caveat, would likely field Jan Oblak in goal, a defensive line of Dávid Hancko, Robin Le Normand, Jorge Domínguez and Alejandro Grimaldo, a midfield of Koke, Rodrigo Mendoza, Giuliano Simeone and either Obed Vargas or Carlos Martín, with Ademola Lookman leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on this season's trends, has Atlético as the favorite but without an overwhelming edge:

The split between 21% for the home side and 25% for a draw makes clear that, while Atlético starts as the clear favorite, the match is far from decided on paper. The expected goals figures from our model, an in-house estimate rather than an official statistic, point to a tight margin: 1.12 for Sevilla and 1.89 for Atlético, with an estimated total of 3 goals in the match. It's worth noting these figures are an internal projection and should not be taken as betting odds.

With two unbeaten teams and a head-to-head record tilted toward Atlético, the Pizjuán has the makings of a match that looks even on paper but carries a clear favorite according to the numbers.