Sevilla and Osasuna look to snap losing skids in tight Pizjuan clash

Sevilla arrives at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan needing to snap a rough stretch: just one win in its last five matches, with two losses mixed in along the way. Standing in the way is an Osasuna side that is not exactly thriving either, though it comes in with a bit more confidence after winning its most recent outing. The two sides meet in LaLiga, a clash between mid-table teams that both need points to keep pace with the group above them.

So far this season, Sevilla has posted 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in 9 matches, with 14 goals scored and 16 allowed, numbers that put the club in sixth place. Osasuna has also played 9 matches, going 3-2-4 with 10 goals scored and 18 allowed, leaving the team in 12th. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 3 points, which makes clear this one looks even on paper.

Recent form does not paint a particularly favorable picture for either club: over their last five matches, Sevilla has two wins, a draw and two losses, while Osasuna has one win, one draw and three losses in that same span. It is also worth glancing at some season long trends, though it should be noted they come from a different sample: playing at home in LaLiga this season (in 4 matches), Sevilla averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.755 allowed per game, with a 25% clean sheet rate, and tends to score more in the final stretch, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Osasuna, on the road and also over 4 matches, averages 1.508 goals scored and a steep 3.758 allowed, with no clean sheets in that sample, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes.

That same home and away sample highlights the names carrying the most offensive weight: for Sevilla, Miguel Sierra and Isaac Romero have 2 goals apiece, while for Osasuna, Ante Budimir stands out with 7 goals, well clear of the rest of his teammates.

What the head to head record says

The history between these two clearly favors the visitors: of the 8 matches played, Osasuna has won 4, Sevilla 1, with 3 draws, and a combined goal tally of 7 for Sevilla and 10 for Osasuna.

Likely lineups

Sevilla's probable starting eleven carries a high reliability rating based on recent data, with Odysseas Vlachodimos in goal and a back line featuring Gabriel Suazo, Juan Iglesias, Andres Castrin and Kike Salas, backed by Lucien Agoume, Felix Correia, Youssouf Fofana, Miguel Sierra and Giorgi Kochorashvili in midfield, with Robbie Ure leading the attack.

On Osasuna's side, the reliability of the projected lineup is low. Aitor Fernandez would start in goal, with Alejandro Catena, Inigo Arguibide, Abel Bretones and Enzo Boyomo across the back, Jon Moncayola, Iker Munoz and Moi Gomez in midfield, and a forward line of Ruben Garcia, Ante Budimir and Raul Garcia.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model calculates the following probabilities for this match:

These numbers point to a slight edge for Sevilla as the home side, though without a clear favorite: with 30% for a visitor win and 28% for a draw, the gap between all three outcomes is razor thin. This is EnPelotas' own projection, not a betting line. As for goals, the model projects 1.56 expected for Sevilla and 1.28 for Osasuna, a combined 2.84, in line with trends that point to an 88% chance of more than 2.5 total goals and a 75% chance that both teams find the net.

With both defenses showing cracks so far this season, the Pizjuan could be the stage for an open match, the kind that stays undecided until the final whistle.