Spain hosts Croatia at the Pizjuán with Group A3 lead on the line

The Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán opens its doors for a matchup that already arrives with both teams tied at the top of Group A3. Spain and Croatia both come in with perfect records after one matchday, and this clash could shape the direction of the group in the UEFA Nations League.

Spain arrives in strong form: it won its opening match of the tournament 3-2, and looking further back, it has racked up five wins in its last five outings. Croatia also opened with a win, 2-1, and over its last five matches has gone three wins and two losses, a more uneven run than Spain's but still positive overall. In the Group A3 table, Spain sits on top with 3 points and a goal difference of +1, closely followed by Croatia, also on 3 points and +1 goal difference; the gap between them is zero points, so today's result could settle who's truly in control of the group. England and the Czech Republic, both pointless after their first match, trail behind.

Worth noting, this shouldn't be confused with a separate sample: at the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away across seven matches, Spain averaged 1.75 goals scored and just 0.125 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of its matches, with its most productive stretch coming between minutes 16 and 30. Mikel Oyarzabal stands out as the top scorer in that sample, with 5 goals, followed by Pedro Porro and Mikel Merino with 2 each. Croatia, in that same competition but over a smaller sample of four matches, averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 25% of its matches, with its best stretch between minutes 31 and 45; there, Ante Budimir, Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic stand out, each with one goal.

A head-to-head record that favors Spain

The all-time series between the two sides also tilts in Spain's favor: of seven meetings, Spain has won 4, there was 1 draw and Croatia has won 2, with a combined goal tally of 18 to 8 in Spain's favor.

Probable lineups

Spain, with a highly reliable projected lineup based on its recent matches, is expected to line up with Unai Simón in goal, a back line of Laporte, Cubarsí, Cucurella and Porro, a midfield of Rodri, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Álex Baena and Fabián Ruiz, and Oyarzabal leading the attack. Croatia, with a lower-confidence projection, is shaping up with Livakovic in goal, a defensive line of Perisic, Stanisic, Gvardiol, Sutalo and Pongracic, Modric, Kovacic, Sucic and Baturina in midfield, and Budimir up top.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, makes Spain the heavy favorite, though the figures are worth reading with some caution.

The model also projects expected goals of 2.31 for Spain against 0.60 for Croatia, a combined total of 2.91 goals in the match. Added to that are a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 86% chance that both teams score. This is an in-house estimate drawn from this season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With the group lead on the line and two unbeaten teams meeting in this tournament, the Pizjuán has all the ingredients for a back-and-forth match, though the numbers suggest an afternoon that should favor the hosts.