Stockport County Rally with Ten Men to Knock Out Cray Wanderers in FA Cup Extra Time

Cray Wanderers led 2-0 with a man advantage from the 30th minute and looked set to pull off the upset in the FA Cup. But Stockport County struck back in stoppage time, forced extra time, and completed a full turnaround in the 100th minute: a final 2-3 at Flamingo Park, capped off by a penalty goal that sealed their spot in the next round.

The hosts got off to a fast start thanks to a quick break. In the 20th minute, Sammie McLeod finished with his right foot from the center of the box after a counterattack threaded by Olajuwon Ogunwamide, making it 1-0. Ten minutes later, the match changed dramatically: Luca Ashby-Hammond was shown a straight red card for Stockport County, leaving the visitors down to ten men. Cray Wanderers made the extra man count almost immediately: in the 35th minute, Alex Hernandez scored direct from a free kick, curling a right-footed effort into the top corner to make it 2-0.

That was the score at halftime, and for most of the second half the scoreline held even as Stockport County, playing a man short, gradually gained ground and created chances through Harry Wood, Mikael Mandron, and Jack Diamond. The visitors' patience paid off late on: in the 80th minute, Kyle Wootton, who had just come on as a substitute, headed home from close range off a cross from Josh Dacres-Cogley to make it 2-1. The equalizer came in stoppage time, in the 90th minute, when Mandron connected on another header, again assisted by Dacres-Cogley, making it 2-2 and sending the match to extra time.

In extra time, Stockport County completed the comeback. In the 99th minute, JJ Briggs brought down Mandron in the box for a penalty, and a minute later Lewis Fiorini made no mistake from the spot to make it a final 2-3. There were no further goals despite the match running until the 123rd minute.

What the numbers say

Possession clearly favored the visitors despite playing with a man down from the first half, a reflection of how Stockport County controlled the second half and extra time.

Our after the fact xG estimate, calculated from shot locations, also favors Stockport County: 3.101 to Cray Wanderers' 1.849. It was a match in which the home side struck first and played with more men on the field for a stretch, but one in which the underlying chance creation numbers ultimately favored the team that advanced.

Before kickoff, our model gave Stockport County a 53% chance to win, with 23% for Cray Wanderers and 24% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.04 for the visitors and 1.33 for the home side. The final result, comeback and extra time included, ended up lining up with that forecast, though the road to get there was far messier than any number could have predicted: an early red card, a two goal lead that evaporated late, and a penalty in extra time that decided it all.

For Cray Wanderers, there's a sense of a missed opportunity: playing more than 60 minutes with an extra man and still failing to hold the lead. For Stockport County, meanwhile, it's the image of a team that refused to give in despite playing a man short and that found, deep into extra time, the reward in this FA Cup round played out at Flamingo Park.