Strasbourg looks to snap losing skid against surging Auxerre in Ligue 1

Four losses in a row after that opening draw: that's how Strasbourg arrives at the Stade de la Meinau for a Ligue 1 clash that carries more urgency than anything else. Standing across from them will be Auxerre, who aren't exactly flush with breathing room either, but arrive with better recent form.

Strasbourg sits 16th with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in 8 matches, having scored 12 goals and conceded 18. The recent run only makes things worse: in their last five games they managed just one draw and dropped four straight. Auxerre, meanwhile, sit 12th with 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, also with 12 goals scored and 18 conceded, though with a steeper goal difference on the negative side (-6). Still, in their last five matches Will Still's side won three, drew one and lost one, a far more encouraging trend than their upcoming opponent's. Just 3 points separate the two clubs in the standings.

It's worth looking at some context numbers, even if they come from different sample sizes than the current league table. Playing at home in this season's Ligue 1, Strasbourg averages 1.333 goals scored and 1.653 conceded per match across three games, without a single clean sheet, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. On the other side, Auxerre on the road in that same sample (four matches) scores 1.76 goals per game but concedes at a high clip, 3.24, also without keeping a clean sheet, and tends to score between the 61st and 75th minutes. These figures shouldn't be mistaken for form in the actual league table, but they do suggest an open game from both ends.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Strasbourg

The history between these two sides is heavily skewed: of 8 meetings, Strasbourg has won 6, there's been 1 draw, and Auxerre has won just once, with a combined 13 goals for the home side against just 3 for the visitors. That's a heavy precedent, though it says nothing about what might happen today.

Likely lineups

As a probable lineup with medium reliability, Strasbourg could start Filip Jörgensen in goal; Oso, Genesis Antwi, Jeyland Mitchell and Karim Coulibaly across the back line; Gessime Yassine, Giovanni Reyna, Diogo Sousa, Pape Diop and Dário Essugo in midfield; and Conrad Harder leading the line up top. For Auxerre, also an estimate, Mamadou Diop would start between the posts; Clément Akpa, Axel Tuanzebe, Christ Makosso and Arthur Piedfort in defense; Kévin Danois, Lamine Sy, Fredrik Oppegård and Naouirou Ahamada in midfield; and the attacking pair of Danny Namaso and Cameron Archer, the latter the team's top scorer in away matches this season.

What do the odds say?

Our model gives Strasbourg a certain edge from playing at home, though it's far from an overwhelming favorite.

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals back up that reading: 1.89 for Strasbourg against 1.11 for Auxerre, a combined expected total of 3 goals that lines up with another notable figure: an 83% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals, and a 100% probability both teams score.

With two teams that concede goals easily and both need points to pull away from the lower half of the table, the match at the Stade de la Meinau has every ingredient to deliver plenty of drama.