Sturm Graz and Marseille Chase Their First European Lift in Graz

Two teams still searching for their first win in this edition of the Europa League meet at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Sturm Graz has just one point out of a possible six, while Marseille has none from six, so there is no room left to keep waiting. Whichever side leaves without points here will start to see its path through the league phase get a lot harder.

The Austrian side arrives with a draw and a loss from its two matches in the competition, with zero goals scored and three conceded, a line that points to an attack that hasn't found its footing yet. Over its last five matches across all competitions, things look somewhat better: two wins, a draw and two losses, a sign that Fabio Ingolitsch's team isn't in as rough shape as its European numbers suggest. Still, a caveat is worth noting: in this season's Europa League, both home and away, Sturm Graz kept a clean sheet in half of its matches and tends to score within the first 15 minutes when it does, though that sample is just two games and shouldn't be read as a reflection of the club's broader form in the competition.

Marseille isn't doing any better. Two losses in the tournament, one goal scored and five conceded, and over its last five matches overall the French side has three losses and two wins, with Keyliane Abdallah as its only scorer on record in this European sample. Marseille's own Europa League trend tells a similar story: the club failed to keep a clean sheet in either of its two matches, and its most common scoring window falls between the 16th and 30th minutes.

In the overall standings, both clubs sit stuck near the bottom: Sturm Graz is 26th with one point and Marseille is 31st with none, separated by just 1 point. With only two matches played apiece, the table doesn't yet say much about either team's real level, but it does confirm that both badly need to get off on the right foot.

Probable lineups

For Sturm Graz, the projected lineup (medium reliability, based on recent matches) would have Daniil Khudyakov in goal, a back line of Joshua Quarshie, Arjan Malic and Paul-Friedrich Koller, a midfield of Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Jürgen Heil, Jacob Hödl, Luca Weinhandl and Luís Balbo, and Valmir Matoshi paired with Simon Seidl up top.

On Marseille's side, the probable eleven, also drawn from recent matches, projects as Jeffrey de Lange in goal, a back line of Emerson, CJ Egan-Riley, Timothy Weah and Nayef Aguerd, a midfield of Himad Abdelli, Amine Harit, Igor Paixão and Angel Gomes, and Amine Gouiri alongside Neal Maupay leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model projects a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

The breakdown doesn't produce a clear favorite: the home side's 40% sits just above the visitors' 32%, with a 28% draw chance that can't be ruled out. The expected goals from our model also point to an open game, with 1.54 for Sturm Graz and 1.35 for Marseille, a combined total near 2.88 goals that suggests neither side is likely to hold much back. As always, these are our own estimates, not a bookmaker's odds.

With both tables crying out for points, the match in Graz looks like it could come down to small details. And given the form both sides are carrying into it, any mistake could prove costly.