Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar Clash in Europa League With a Near Three-Way Toss-Up

Sunderland host AZ at the Stadium of Light with Europa League points on the line, and the recent form of both sides tells opposite stories. The English side arrive with an up-and-down run, while the Dutch club show up in a confident stretch that's worth a closer look.

Sunderland, under Régis Le Bris, come in with an inconsistent run over their last five matches: two wins, a draw and two losses, with the most recent result being a defeat. It's not a bad stretch, but it doesn't scream stability either. On the other side, Leeroy Echteld's AZ arrive in fine form: four wins and a draw in their last five outings, with no losses in that span. That gap in momentum is one of the clearest signals heading into this match.

It's worth clarifying something about each team's season-long trends, since they come from very different samples and don't speak to the same competition. Sunderland's 100% clean sheet rate comes from a single match played in the 2026 English League Cup, where Chemsdine Talbi was the scorer; it says nothing about what the team has allowed in the Europa League. For AZ, the available figure is more specific and comes from their own Europa League 2024 campaign playing on the road: in six matches away from home they averaged 1.333 goals scored and 2.333 conceded per game, with a 0% clean sheet rate, and with Denso Kasius and Seiya Maikuma among their scorers in that sample, along with a tendency to score late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Those numbers point to a team that, on the road, tends to get drawn into open matches, though that's from a different season than the current one.

The Likely Lineups

Sunderland's probable XI, with low confidence in our projection, points to Robin Roefs in goal, a back line with Dan Ballard, Reinildo Mandava, Nordi Mukiele and Trai Hume, a midfield with Enzo Le Fée, Thomas Meunier, Noah Sadiki, Nilson Angulo and Granit Xhaka, and Brian Brobbey leading the attack.

AZ, with high confidence in our projection, would essentially run back the group that's been delivering good results: Jari De Busser in goal, a back line with Mateo Chávez, Wouter Goes, Lewis Schouten and Elijah Dijkstra, a midfield with Peer Koopmeiners, Dave Kwakman, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Weslley Patati and Kees Smit, and Mexx Meerdink up front.

What the Numbers Say Before Kickoff

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a fairly even matchup here. Our expected goals projections are close: 1.26 for Sunderland and 1.11 for AZ, for an estimated total of 2.37 goals in the match.

With 38% for Sunderland, 31% for a draw and 31% for AZ, the split is nearly a three-way tie: there's a slight lean toward the home side for playing at home, but it's far from a clear favorite. Worth repeating that this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With Sunderland looking to rediscover consistency at home and AZ trying to keep their good run going away from home, the Stadium of Light gears up for a Europa League match that the numbers paint as even from start to finish.