Tietz strike gives Mainz 05 a narrow win over Schalke 04

One goal was enough for Mainz 05 to leave the VELTINS-Arena with all three points. Phillip Tietz struck in the 23rd minute, lashing a right-footed shot home from close range after a cross from Anthony Caci, and that 1-0 scoreline held firm until the final whistle, even as Schalke 04 pushed hard in stretches, particularly in the second half.

The match opened with Mainz 05 looking the more dangerous side from the first minute, as Sheraldo Becker and Lee Jae-Sung both tested the home goalkeeper, who kept them out. Schalke answered with a Kenan Karaman header that was cleared and a shot from Adrian Gantenbein that drifted wide, but the visitors' control of the game eventually paid off. In the 23rd minute, Caci whipped a cross into the box and Tietz finished from the right side to make it 1-0. The rest of the first half saw more chances for Mainz, with Becker narrowly missing the top corner and Tietz forcing another save, while Schalke struggled to create clear openings before the break.

In the second half, Schalke 04 turned to the bench in search of a response, bringing on Hwang Hee-Chan, Junior Dina Ebimbe, Max Wober and Junior Adamu to add more of an offensive threat late on. There were shots from Satoshi Tanaka, Hasan Kurucay, Kenan Karaman and Soufiane El-Faouzi, none of them finding the target, along with a Hwang Hee-Chan header in the closing minutes that was also saved. Mainz, for their part, managed the lead comfortably, with Amiri and Tietz still testing the defense in isolated attacks, but without adding to the score. The match ended with the result the first-half goal had already decided.

What the numbers say

Mainz 05 came out on top in nearly every metric on the night, with more possession, more shots on target and more clear-cut chances, though Schalke did generate more corners.

The expected goals figures drawn from the match's shots back up that visiting dominance as well: 1.629 for Mainz 05 against 0.572 for Schalke 04, a gap that lines up with what the scoreboard showed.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Mainz 05 a 45% chance of winning, against 26% for Schalke 04 and 29% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.49 for the visitors and 1.07 for the home side. The final result, a narrow 1-0 win for the visitors built on a single goal in the whole match, ended up tighter in the numbers than that pregame script suggested, though it still left Mainz 05 as the dominant side, just as the forecast had anticipated.

What the result means

With this win, Mainz 05 moves to 10 points through six Bundesliga matches, putting them in fifth place in the table. Schalke 04, meanwhile, sit on 5 points after six matches, with a record of one win, two draws and three losses that leaves them in the relegation zone. The gap between the two sides in the standings now stands at 5 points, a margin that also showed on the field tonight at the VELTINS-Arena.