Tigre snatches late 2-2 draw against Independiente Rivadavia at the Gargantini

Independiente Rivadavia had the game in hand, or so it seemed, after Jose Florentin made it 2-1 just minutes into the second half. But Tigre found the equalizer deep into stoppage time, in the 91st minute, and the final 2-2 at Estadio Bautista Gargantini left the home side feeling like two points had slipped away at the very last gasp.

The match, part of the Argentina Primera Division, started with Independiente Rivadavia ahead on the scoreboard just past the twenty minute mark. Matias Fernandez opened the scoring in the 19th minute with a right footed strike from outside the box that found the top corner, set up by an assist from Juan Manuel Elordi. The home side's lead didn't last long: six minutes later, in the 25th, Alan Barrionuevo equalized for Tigre with a point blank header, connecting on a cross from Jabes Saralegui that came off a corner kick. The teams went into the break tied at 1-1.

The second half opened with Independiente Rivadavia striking almost immediately: in the 51st minute, Jose Florentin fired a right footed shot from outside the area that snuck in at the far post to make it 2-1. The home team looked on track to take all three points and managed the lead for much of the second half, with a few clear chances it couldn't finish, including a shot from Kevin Vazquez that clipped the crossbar in stoppage time. But Tigre refused to give up: in the 91st minute, with the match nearly over, Manuel Fernandez finished with his left foot from the center of the box, off an assist from Federico Alvarez, to make it a final 2-2.

What the numbers say

Tigre controlled possession and created more clear-cut chances, though the scoreline ended up even. The visitors' territorial dominance didn't translate into a big edge in shots, and both teams finished with similar estimates of danger created.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken, Independiente Rivadavia generated 0.99 expected goals to Tigre's 0.92, figures that reflect how tight the contest was despite the home side seeing less of the ball.

Before kickoff, our model projected a 45% probability of an Independiente Rivadavia win, 31% for a draw and 24% for Tigre, with expected goals of 1.34 for the home side and 0.90 for the visitors. The result ended up falling on the draw, the second most likely outcome in our projection, though with a more open scoreline (2-2) than those numbers anticipated.

What the result means in the standings

In Group B, Independiente Rivadavia came into this match with 19 points from 13 games (five wins, four draws and four losses), while Tigre has 13 points also from 13 matches (three wins, four draws and six losses). The two sides are separated by 6 points in the standings. Neither team walks away particularly pleased with this draw: Independiente Rivadavia let slip the chance to take all three points when it had the game under control, and Tigre rescues a point that, given how the match unfolded, had looked out of reach for most of the night.

In the end, the match had a bit of everything: an early flurry of goals, a lead that looked decisive for the home team, and a finish decided in the final breath. Independiente Rivadavia is left with the feeling of having let a win slip through its fingers after controlling the game for nearly the entire second half, while Tigre walks away with a point that looks more even on the scoreboard than the match itself was for long stretches.