Tijuana edges Cruz Azul 2-1 at Estadio Caliente to confirm strong start in Liga MX

Club Tijuana beat Cruz Azul 2-1 at Estadio Caliente in a Liga MX matchup that confirmed the Xolos' strong start to the season and left La Maquina with the feeling of having wasted a night in which they controlled more of the ball. Ignacio Rivero and Gilberto Mora scored for the home side, while Nicolas Ibanez briefly pulled one back for the visitors in a game that was decided in an intense stretch around halftime.

Three goals in ten minutes

The first half was evenly matched, with chances at both ends, but Tijuana got its reward right before the break: in the 43rd minute, Ignacio Rivero struck a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Gilberto Mora, to make it 1-0. The lead lasted barely three minutes of actual playing time, because right after the restart, in the 46th minute, Nicolas Ibanez equalized for Cruz Azul with a shot from inside the box set up by Luka Romero.

The equalizer, though, didn't change the script. Tijuana answered quickly, and in the 53rd minute Gilberto Mora, who had also been involved in the opening goal, capitalized on a counterattack assisted by Alan Vega to finish with his right foot and hand the lead back to the home side, who wouldn't relinquish it again. The rest of the second half saw attempts from both teams (shots from Jose Paradela and Alan Montes for Cruz Azul, clear chances for Adonis Preciado on Tijuana's side), but none of them moved the scoreboard again.

The numbers behind the game

The stats reflect a match in which Cruz Azul controlled more of the ball, but Tijuana was more clinical in the penalty areas.

The big chances tally (five for Tijuana against just one for Cruz Azul) goes a long way toward explaining the result: despite seeing less of the ball, the Xolos were sharper in the decisive moments. That gap also shows up in the post-match estimated xG, which we calculate at 1.93 for Tijuana against 0.81 for Cruz Azul, a figure that backs up the home side's efficiency, though it's worth remembering this is our own measurement of what was generated during the game and not a pre-match forecast.

What the preview said and what actually happened

Before the match, our projection gave Tijuana a 44% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 29% for a Cruz Azul victory, with expected goals split at 1.67 for the home side and 1.33 for the visitors, for an estimated total of 3 goals. The outcome ended up lining up with that forecast: Tijuana was the favorite and won, and the three total goals on the scoreboard (2-1) matched the projected figure exactly.

What the result means in the standings

With this win, Club Tijuana moved to 10 points from four matches played, with three wins and a draw, putting them in second place, trailing Club America only on goal difference. Cruz Azul, meanwhile, stayed at 6 points from their four matches (two wins and two losses), in ninth place in the table, four points behind tonight's opponent.

The match makes clear that Tijuana, with Gilberto Mora as a constant source of danger (he was key in the first goal and scored the second himself), is sustaining a solid start to the tournament. Cruz Azul, for its part, showed the ability to generate plenty of play, but will need to sharpen its finishing in the box if it wants to reverse the negative trend it has carried over its last several matches.