Tijuana hosts Querétaro looking to cement its spot near the top of Liga MX

Fourth against seventh in Liga MX, with just three points separating the two sides in the table. Club Tijuana hosts Querétaro at Estadio Caliente in a matchup that might look routine on paper but carries real weight in the middle-to-upper part of the standings.

Tijuana sits fourth with 13 points, built on a record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 6 matches, with 10 goals scored and 7 allowed. Recent form, though, paints a choppier picture: over its last five games the club has managed just 2 wins, with three losses mixed in. In fact, the current stretch opened with back-to-back defeats before the team found its footing again. In the 2026 Liga MX season, playing at home, Tijuana averages 1.995 goals scored per match and just 0.495 allowed across a sample of 4 games, keeping a clean sheet in half of them. Gilberto Mora stands out as the top scorer in that stretch with 4 goals, followed by Mourad El Ghezouani and Elias Manoel with 2 apiece.

Querétaro, meanwhile, sits seventh with 10 points, on a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses this tournament, with 9 goals scored and 7 allowed. Its recent form has also been uneven: of the last five matches, it won just one, drew two and lost two, closing out with a win in its most recent outing. On the road this season, in a sample of 3 matches, Querétaro averages 1.66 goals scored and 0.66 allowed, keeping a clean sheet in a third of those games. Santiago Homenchenko leads that sample with 4 goals, followed by Alí Ávila with 3.

The head-to-head record is fairly even, with a slight edge for the border side: in 8 meetings, Tijuana has won 4, there has been 1 draw, and Querétaro has won 3, with the home side scoring 9 goals to the visitors' 8.

Probable lineups

For Tijuana, the projected lineup, flagged as low reliability by our model, has Antonio Rodríguez in goal, a back line of Jackson Porozo, Rafael Fernández, Alejandro Gómez and Alan Vega, a midfield featuring Gilberto Mora, Adonis Preciado, Iván Tona, Ignacio Rivero and Yael Padilla, with Mourad El Ghezouani leading the line up top.

Querétaro's projected lineup carries a higher confidence rating, with Guillermo Allison between the posts, a back four of Diego Reyes, Bayron Duarte, Daniel Parra and Lucas Abascia, a midfield of Carlo García, Paulo Victor, Santiago Homenchenko, Enzo Giménez and Álex Alcalá, and Alí Ávila as the lone forward.

What the numbers say

Our model tabs Tijuana as the favorite, though without an overwhelming edge. Here's how the probabilities break down:

The 48% figure for the home side makes clear that Tijuana is the preferred pick, but a 29% chance of a draw and 23% for Querétaro show this one is far from settled beforehand. This is an in-house estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. The expected goals numbers back up that reading too: 1.51 for Tijuana against 0.97 for Querétaro, for an estimated total of 2.47 goals in the match. Our models also put the odds of more than 2.5 goals at 58% and the chance of both teams scoring at 67%.

With those numbers on the table, everything points to an open contest with scoring chances at both ends. Tijuana will look to use its home-field advantage to lock down a spot near the top, while Querétaro will try to pull off the upset that could pull it closer to the leading pack.