Toluca enters as favorite against Austin FC in the quarterfinals with 66% win probability

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a matchup of contrasts: a Toluca side that attacks with discipline and an Austin FC team that scores plenty but also gives up goals in bunches. The quarterfinals of the knockout stage are on the line, and the number that carries the most weight before kickoff is this one: Austin FC has yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament.

Toluca sits third in its group, with two wins and one loss in three matches, six goals scored and just two allowed. The Diablos Rojos average 1.6 goals scored per game and only 0.8 allowed, with a clean sheet in 40% of their matches. Over their last five games they've posted three wins, one draw and one loss, with a victory in their most recent outing. Their most productive scoring window falls between minutes 31 and 45, right before halftime. Helinho, Jesus Gallardo and Alexis Vega share the team lead in scoring, each with one goal.

Austin FC, meanwhile, sits 14th, though that ranking deserves some context: two wins and a draw in three matches, with no losses, six goals scored and only one allowed in their tournament table. The contrast with their overall scoring numbers is stark: they average 1.088 goals scored per game but 2.73 allowed, a gap that explains why they haven't managed a single clean sheet. Their recent form shows two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five, and they tend to find the net late, between minutes 76 and 90. Myrto Uzuni leads the attack with 6 goals, followed by Christian Ramirez with 5 and Facundo Torres with 2.

Probable lineups

With low confidence in our projection, Toluca could start with Luis Garcia in goal; a back line of Federico Pereira, Everardo Lopez, Bruno Mendez and Jesus Gallardo; Franco Romero anchoring midfield alongside Alexis Vega, Jesus Angulo and Erick Gutierrez; and up top, Federico Vinas paired with Jorge Diaz.

On Austin FC's side, with medium confidence, the likely eleven would have Brad Stuver in net, Oleksandr Svatok and Guilherme Biro in defense, a midfield of Ervin Torres, Jon Gallagher, Joseph Rosales, Besard Sabovic and Ilie Sanchez, and an attacking trio of Myrto Uzuni, Christian Ramirez and Brandon Vazquez.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Toluca a clear, though not overwhelming, edge. Here's how the projection breaks down:

The 66% figure in Toluca's favor reflects their defensive solidity against a visiting side that concedes goals easily, but the 21% draw probability and Austin FC's 13% are a reminder that nothing is fully settled. These are our own estimates drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a fixed forecast. The broader trends support that offensive script: a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 51% chance that both teams score, which makes sense given Toluca's sharper attack facing a visiting defense that can't seem to keep the ball out of its own net.

With a combined projected xG of 3.11 goals, this match has all the ingredients to stay wide open. Toluca will look to cash in on its scoring touch before halftime, while Austin FC, known for showing up on the scoresheet late, knows it can't afford to fall behind on the board.